Changes projected in the mean daily maximum temperature
in the warmest month of the year are shown in Figure 7 and
are aggregated in Table 6. The HadGEM model predicts the
SUMMARY | APRIL 2010
largest temperature changes of the four GCMs, and it does
so reasonably consistently across the country, although
northern Luzon has noticeably higher temperature changes
than the other regions. An area of low temperature increase
in Central Luzon using MIROC model was observed. Overall,
the temperature increases in the MIROC and GFDL models
are modest. It might be expected that the increased temperature indicated by the IPSL model could lead to lower crop
yields compared with the other models (due to heat stress).
Figure 6. Change in mean yearly precipitation based on four general circulation models, 2000–2050
a. GFDL
b. HadGEM
c. ISPL
d. MIROC
Figure 7. Changes in mean daily maximum temperature in the
warmest month based on four general circulation models, 2000–
2050
Source: Constructed by authors based on the Agricultural Model
Intercomparison Project (AgMIP), as part of Phase 5 of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison (CMIP5), for Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5.
Notes: GFDL = General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; HadGEM = Hadley
Centre Global Environmental Model; IPSL = Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace; MIROC = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate.
a. GFDL
b. HadGEM
c. ISPL
d. MIROC
Table 5. Change in yearly rainfall based on four general circulation
models, 2000–2050
HadGEM
IPSL
MIROC
Millimeters (mm)
1. Luzon
167
252
235
250
1.1 Luzon
172
253
240
245
1.2 CAR
133
248
204
280
2. Visayas
309
531
297
261
3. Mindanao
329
240
200
290
3.1 Mindanao
346
262
203
295
3.2 ARMM
210
86
181
254
Total
247
298
235
265
Source: Constructed by authors based on WorldClim version 1.4
(Hijmans et al. 2005).
Notes: GFDL = General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; HadGEM = Hadley
Centre Global Environmental Model; IPSL = Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace; MIROC = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate.
Region
GFDL
Source: Constructed by authors based on the Agricultural Model
Intercomparison Project (AgMIP), as part of Phase 5 of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison (CMIP5), for Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5.
Notes: GFDL = General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; HadGEM = Hadley
Centre Global Environmental Model; IPSL = Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace; MIROC = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate.
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