AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN THE PHILIPPINES: Subnational Impacts of Selected Investment Strategies and Policies Timothy S. Thomas, Angga Pradesha and Nicostrato Perez B eing a nation of many islands spanning a considerable range of latitudes, the Philippines is noted for its climatic and ecological diversity. Significant climate differences exist, not least due to the country’s extensive coastal exposure and mountainous areas. For these reasons, the impacts of climate change on agriculture are likely to differ significantly across the country. Apart from the more well-known phenomenon of cyclones, which have increased in frequency and strength in recent years, what in fact is the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Philippines? Will it be wholly negative, or might some parts of the country actually be positively affected? And if the impact on agriculture will be positive in some areas and negative in others, could identifying these differences ahead of time help people to adapt in locations projected to be negatively affected? This policy note summarizes the results of biophysical and economic modeling analyses presented in the forthcoming International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) manuscript, The Future of Philippine Agriculture: Scenarios, Policies, and Investments under Climate Change, edited by Mark W. Rosegrant, Arsenio Balisacan, and Mercedita Sombilla. CURRENT DIFFERENCES AMONG REGIONS The aggregated regions used in this policy note are presented in Figure 1. The Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) are treated separately but are also included in the larger groupings in which they fall (Luzon and Mindanao, respectively). The wettest parts of the country PROJECT POLICY NOTE 2 | SEPTEMBER 2015 appear to be in eastern Mindanao, although high rainfall is also found in eastern Visayas and in the mountains where CAR is located (Figure 2; Table 1). The main agricultural areas of Luzon appear to be among the driest in the nation, but they still have considerable rainfall levels of 1,400 to 1,900 millimeters per year. While it is not universally true that the very driest portions of the other major groups (Visayas and Mindanao) are the most densely cultivated, as a general rule they have relatively low rainfall levels by Philippine standards (which would be considered high in many other countries) and are the preferred areas for agriculture. The rainfall map for the wettest three consecutive months of the year— indicating the approximate rainfall in a growing season—are shown in Figure 3 and are aggregated in Table 2. The general distribution of rainfall in the wettest three months (calculated at each pixel, so the actual three-month period varies) follows a similar geographic distribution to that of yearly rainfall. Figure 1. Regional groupings underlying the analysis ARMM CAR Luzon Mindanao Visayas Source: Constructed by authors based on GADM (2010)

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