new vulnerabilities (e.g., water scarcity) and thus contribute to instability
and conflict even in situations not previously considered at risk.
GCCs have identified four general areas of climate-related security risks:
Persistently recurring conditions such as flooding, drought, and higher
temperatures increase the strain on fragile states and vulnerable
populations by dampening economic activity and burdening public health
through loss of agriculture and electricity production, the change in known
infectious disease patterns and the rise of new ones, and increases in
respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. This could result in increased intraand inter-state migration, and generate other negative effects on human
security. For example, from 2006-2011, a severe multi-year drought
affected Syria2 and contributed to massive agriculture failures and
population displacements. Large movements of rural dwellers to city
centers coincided with the presence of large numbers of Iraqi refugees in
Syrian cities, effectively overwhelming institutional capacity to respond
constructively to the changing service demands. These kinds of impacts in
regions around the world could necessitate greater DoD involvement in the
provision of humanitarian assistance and other aid.
More frequent and/or more severe extreme weather events that may
require substantial involvement of DoD units, personnel, and assets in
humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) abroad and in Defense
Support of Civil Authorities (DSCA) at home. Massive flooding in Pakistan in
2010 was the country’s worst in recorded history, killing more than 2,000
people and affecting 18 million; DoD delivered humanitarian relief to
otherwise inaccessible areas. Super Storm Sandy in New York and New
Jersey in 2012 resulted in over 14,000 DoD personnel mobilized to provide
direct support, and at least an additional 10,000 who supported the
operation in various capacities in the areas of power restoration, fuel
resupply, transportation infrastructure repair, water and meal distribution,
temporary housing and sheltering, and debris removal. The need for HADR
and DSCA will likely rise as cities expand to encompass the majority of the
global population and because flood risk threatens more people than any
other natural hazard, especially in urban areas.3 Many growing cities are
located in low- and middle-income countries with limited resources.
Building partner nation capacity for HA/DR capabilities and civilian-military
partnerships for DSCA are important parts of GCC security cooperation
efforts. The Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) is responsible
for leading and coordinating the U.S. Government’s response to disasters
overseas.
Sea level rise and temperature changes lead to greater chance of flooding
in coastal communities and increase adverse impacts to navigation safety,
damages to port facilities and cooperative security locations, and displaced
populations. Sea level rise may require more frequent or larger-scale DoD
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