Memorandum for the Petitioners | 76
forests ) are relatively unable to relocate, they are projected to experience high
rates of mortality and loss. The IPCC SR 1.5 warns that the majority (7090%) of warm water (tropical) coral reefs that exist today will disappear even
318
if global wanning is constrained to 1.5°C (very high confidence ), and 99%
of all corals will disappear at 2°C.319
8.10. Warming ocean temperatures, and declining pH and carbonate
ion concentrations in ocean acidification, represent risks to the productivity
of fisheries and aquaculture, and the security of regional livelihoods, as stated
in IPCC AR5 .320
r-
8.11. The Philippines could be one of the most severely affected by
these impacts, as it has 18,000 kilometers of shoreline321 and approximately
one million reef fishers (without counting aquaculture).322 The Philippines
also has 26,000 km 2 of coral reefs, which is a large share of the coral reef area
of the coral triangle (96,000 km 2). Although only occupying a small share of
world’s oceans, they play a crucial role for biodiversity by providing habitat
for a significant proportion of marine life creating highly productive
ecosystems in relatively low nutrient water regions.323
—
8.12. Loss of coral cover typically result in the decline of smallerbodied coral-associated fishes that are dependent on the structure of reef
habitat for shelter.324 If the small fish disappear, the number of bigger fishes
will also diminish, causing dramatic changes in species distribution.325
r
8.13. Warming oceans and ocean acidification threaten human food
security and the tourism industry, as confirmed by the IPCC SR 1.5 :
Small-scale fisheries in tropical regions, which are
very dependent on habitat provided by coastal ecosystems
such as coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass and kelp forests, are
expected to face growing risks at 1.5°C of warming because
Discussion of terms “confidence” and “likelihood ,” supra note 116.
IPCC SR 1.5, available at
https://wwvv.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2 /2019/06/SR 15 Full Report High Res.pdf (last accessed on
12 September 2019), Technical Summary, p. 38.
320 IPCC, WGII, AR 5 Chapter 30: The Ocean, supra note 309, p. 1658.
321
One Ocean, Managing Philippine Coasts and Seas: Understanding the Challenge, available at
http://oneocean.org/ flash/the philippine seas. html (last accessed on 12 September 2019).
322
Teh, L., et al. (19 June 2013 ), A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers. PLOS ONE
8(6): e65397. https://doi.org/10.1371/joumal.pone.0065397, at Table 3, available at
https://joumals. plos.org/plosone/article/citation?id =10.1371/joumal. pone.0065397 ( last accessed on 12
September 2019).
323 Exhibit L
“ ” to “L-38,” Literature Review of Studies Related to Climate Change Impacts in the
,
Philippines p. 23.
324
Exhibit “FF” to “FF-7,” Printed PowerPoint presentation of Maria Lourdes San Diego- McGlone, PhD;
Laura David, PhD; and Porfirio Aliho, PhD, entitled “ How Increased CO2 Affects the Oceansf slide 9.
325
David, L., supra note 313, p. 137; See also Cheung, W., et al. (2010), Large-scale redistribution of
maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology,
16[ 1 ], pp. 24-35, available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.eom/doi/abs/10. l 111/j.1365-2486 - 2009.01995.x
( last accessed on 12 September 2019).
318
319
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