Memorandum for the Petitioners | 31
5.17. In August 2019, the IPCC released the Special Report Climate
Change and Land (SRCCL ) and , in September 2019, it will publish the
Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
(forthcoming).88
5.18. An analysis of the 2018 IPCC SR 1 .5 elicits the following key
material facts:
5.18.1.
“Human activities are estimated to have
caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming.”89 Analyzing
the IPCC SR 1.5 shows that a 2°C temperature rise is much more
dangerous than initially considered at the time that the Paris
Agreement was signed.90
5.18.2.
“Global wanning is likely to reach 1.5°C
between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current
rate.”91 This 0.5°C rise will increase widespread impacts, risks,
and losses, including “warming of extreme temperatures (...),
increases in frequency, intensity, and /or amount of heavy
precipitation (...), and an increase in intensity or frequency of
droughts (,..),”92 depending on the region.
r
5.18.3 .
A 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels could
be enough to destabilize Arctic sea-ice, decline warm water coral
reefs from 70-90%, increase the amount of damage to many
ecosystems, drive the loss of coastal resources, and reduce
productivity of fisheries and aquaculture.93
5.18.4.
Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods,
food security, water supply, human security, and economic
growth are projected to increase significantly with global
warming of 1.5°C and increase still further with a 2°C rise in
temperature.94
r
5.18.5.
The IPCC SR 7.5’s 4 scenarios for GHG
reductions (called pathways: PI , P2, P3, and P4) indicate that
rapid, large-scale emissions reductions, together with natural
carbon sequestration, are needed to meet either the Paris
88
IPCC Reports, available at https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/ (last accessed on 12 September 2019).
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, Sec. B. l . p. 7 [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Portner, D.
Roberts, J. Skea , P.R. Shukla , A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Pean, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R.
Matthews, Y. Chen, X . Zhou , M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]
( hereinafter, “IPCC 2018 Summary for Policymakers”), available at
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR 15_SPM_version_reportJLR.pdf, (last accessed
on 12 September 2019),
90
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Sec. B . l ., p. 7.
9 ] .,
Id Sec. A. I ., p. 4.
92
Id, Sec. B.1 .1 , p. 7.
9
* Id., Sec. B.4.
94
Id , Sec. B.5.
89
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