Different data, different results
These findings serve as guidance on the expected differences in trends in the national and CBMS results.
Hence, although general trends of effects of climate on crop farming income and eventually on vulnerability
to food insecurity maybe expected to be consistent, there is an expected disparity in trends as well in some
of the factors that will be exhibited in later parts of this paper. It is worth mentioning that 2009 marks the
year of Ondoy and higher rainfall can be expected in this year compared to other years. This is also coupled
with differences in time periods (2009 and 2007-2010), differences in scope (national sample and censuses
from 16 provinces), and differences in food insecurity measures (value of food consumption and
malnutrition).
A. Family Income and Expenditure Survey 2009
Effect of climate variables on income from crop farming and gardening and vulnerability
Using the data of Family Income and Expenditure Survey for 2009, the different measures of rainfall and
temperature have varying effects on crop farming and income and subsequently on food insecurity. Table
7 shows the effect of percent change in level of rainfall, seasonality, volatility, decrease in minimum
temperature and increase in maximum tempearture on income from crop farming and gardening.
Table 7. Effect of different climate variables on income from crop farming and gardening, FIES
2009
Categories
Coef.
<-20%
<=20% - <-10%
-10% - <0%
0%-<10%
ln of income from farming and gardening
Seasonality
Volatility
Std.
Std.
Std.
Coef.
Coef.
Err.
Err.
Err.
0.017**
0.014**
*
0.001
*
0.001
-0.072
0.086
-0.016
0.015
0.047**
0.015
*
0.011
-0.014*
0.007
0.043**
0.012 -0.026** 0.012
*
0.012
0.053**
0.007
*
0.014 -0.209** 0.098
Rainfall
0.166**
*
0.031**
*
10% - <20%
-0.015**
>=20%
0.005**
*
0.001
-0.026.
0.017
0.007
0.007
-0.058
-1.992*
0.530
1.195
0.932**
*
-0.215
0.262
0.330
0.088
-0.614
0.533
0.304
0.262
0.093
0.744
1.651**
*
0.532
-0.038
0.266
0.566
3.328**
1.536
Temperature
Std.
Coef.
Err.
Dummies
<-20%
<=2-0% - <-10%
-10% - <0%
0%-<10%
10% - <20%
0.866**
*
0.261**
*
-0.094
0.119
Decrease in min temp
0.990**
*
0.338
CBMS-FAO | 31
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