Memorandum for the Petitioners | 32
Agreement' s temperature goals or more stringent science-based
climate recovery targets, in scenarios with limited reliance on
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), such as in PL95
5. 18.6.
The IPCC SR 1.5 shows that choosing a
pathway like PI that limits global warming to 1.5°C with no or
limited overshoot results in lesser impacts and fewer associated
challenges as compared to relying on overshoot trajectories
outlined in pathways 3 and 4 of the IPCC SR 1.5 . “Reversing
warming after an overshoot of 0.2°C or larger during this century
would require upscaling and deployment of CDR at rates and
volumes that might not be achievable given considerable
implementation challenges.« 96
5.18.7.
Delayed action, therefore, comes with more
risks and less benefits, given that (CDR) deployed at scale is
unproven and comes with many banders, and remains “subject to
multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints, 97 “The
challenges from delayed actions to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions include the risk of cost escalation, lock-in in carbonemitting infrastructure, stranded assets, and reduced flexibility in
future response options in the medium to long-term.55 98 The
IPCC SR 1.5 shows that the faster emissions are cut, the greater
the reduction in wanning and related risks and costs.99
55
C
5.18.8.
Selecting such a scenario (PI ) also has
benefits for sustainable development and the sustainable
development goals (SDGs), while living standards in the Global
South rise.100 < c 1.5°C pathways that include low energy demand
(e.g., see PI in Figure SPM.3a and SPM.3b ), low material
consumption, and low GHG-intensive food consumption have
the most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade
offs with respect to sustainable development and the SDGs.« 101
r
5.18.9 .
More specifically, to meet the 1.5°C goal of
the Paris Agreement, global CO2 emissions would need to be
reduced by 58% by 2030 and reach net zero by around 2050
at the latest, with substantial reductions in other GHGs
compared to 2010 levels, based on the PI pathway.102
Joint Summary of the Amicus Curiae Briefs, supra note 50, p. 9.
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Sec. D 1 .2.
97
Id , Sec. C3.
98
Id , Sec. D1.3.
99
Greenpeace Southeast Asia. (2018), Holding Your Government Accountable for Climate Change: A
People’s Guide, p. 68, available at https://storage.googleapis.com /planet4-intemationalstateless/2018/ 12/4 fdd4d 8a-peoples guide fiil 2 .pdf ( last accessed 12 September 2019).
100
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Figure SPM.3 b, p. 33.
101
Id., Sec. D4.2.
102
The PI pathway is the Low Energy Demand scenario by Grubler et al. (2018), which assumes oil use to
be almost halved (-46 %) and gas use to decline by about one third (-37%) between 2020 and 2030. See:
95
96
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