Memorandum for the Petitioners | 31 5.17. In August 2019, the IPCC released the Special Report Climate Change and Land (SRCCL ) and , in September 2019, it will publish the Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (forthcoming).88 5.18. An analysis of the 2018 IPCC SR 1 .5 elicits the following key material facts: 5.18.1. “Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming.”89 Analyzing the IPCC SR 1.5 shows that a 2°C temperature rise is much more dangerous than initially considered at the time that the Paris Agreement was signed.90 5.18.2. “Global wanning is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.”91 This 0.5°C rise will increase widespread impacts, risks, and losses, including “warming of extreme temperatures (...), increases in frequency, intensity, and /or amount of heavy precipitation (...), and an increase in intensity or frequency of droughts (,..),”92 depending on the region. r 5.18.3 . A 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels could be enough to destabilize Arctic sea-ice, decline warm water coral reefs from 70-90%, increase the amount of damage to many ecosystems, drive the loss of coastal resources, and reduce productivity of fisheries and aquaculture.93 5.18.4. Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase significantly with global warming of 1.5°C and increase still further with a 2°C rise in temperature.94 r 5.18.5. The IPCC SR 7.5’s 4 scenarios for GHG reductions (called pathways: PI , P2, P3, and P4) indicate that rapid, large-scale emissions reductions, together with natural carbon sequestration, are needed to meet either the Paris 88 IPCC Reports, available at https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/ (last accessed on 12 September 2019). IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, Sec. B. l . p. 7 [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Portner, D. Roberts, J. Skea , P.R. Shukla , A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Pean, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X . Zhou , M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)] ( hereinafter, “IPCC 2018 Summary for Policymakers”), available at https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR 15_SPM_version_reportJLR.pdf, (last accessed on 12 September 2019), 90 IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Sec. B . l ., p. 7. 9 ] ., Id Sec. A. I ., p. 4. 92 Id, Sec. B.1 .1 , p. 7. 9 * Id., Sec. B.4. 94 Id , Sec. B.5. 89