Statement for the Commission on
Human Rights Inquiry Hearing
Brenda Ekwurzel, Ph.D.
September 20, 2018
It is an honor to give this statement for the Republic of the Philippines
Commission on Human Rights for the National Inquiry on Climate Change. I am
the Director of Climate Science at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and
have discussed my plans for the presentation with legal representative for the
petitioners, Hasminah Paudac along with Kristin Casper, litigation counsel,
Greenpeace.
I submit the following statement, my Curriculum Vitae, and the PowerPoint
to be presented during the fourth round of public hearings in New York, USA on
September 27, 2018:
The climate assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) demonstrate the advances in science attributing human contribution to
climate change. The second assessment report in 1995 briefly defined the difference
between detection and attribution:
“Detection and attribution studies attempt to distinguish between
anthropogenic and natural influences. "Detection of change" is the process of
demonstrating that an observed change in climate is highly unusual in a
statistical sense, but does not provide a reason for the change. "Attribution"
is the process of establishing cause and effect relations, including the testing
of competing hypotheses.”
It then declared, “the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible
human influence on global climate” (IPCC 1995). By the fifth assessment report
(IPCC 2013), the advances in both detection and attribution for temperature trends
were clear:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.”
“It is extremely likely1 that human influence has been the dominant cause
of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
The largest contribution to this change arose from human activities, in
particular the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from fossil fuels
(Myhre et al., 2013). Heede (2014), found that nearly two-thirds of all industrial
carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions can be traced to the products
of a small number of major industrial carbon producers; 83 producers of coal, oil,
natural gas, and 7 cement manufacturers.
1
IPCC 2013 defines extremely likely as a 95-100% probability of an outcome or result.
1