Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) 064011
I Takayabu et al
original data. We also acknowledge Dr Fujita of the
Numerical Prediction Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Dr Yamaguchi of the
Meteorological Research Institute for providing us
with information about JMA's operational weekly
ensemble prediction system.
References
Bindoff N L et al 2013 Detection and attribution of climate change:
from global to regional Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change ed T F Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, M Tignor,
S K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and
P M Midgley (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge
University Press)
Buizza R and Palmer T N 1995 The singular-vector structure of the
atmospheric global circulation J. Atmos. Sci. 52 1434–56
Christidis N and Stott P A 2014 Change in the odds of warm years
and seasons due to anthropogenic influence on the climate
J. Climate 27 2607–21
Church J and White N 2011 Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the
early 21st century Surv. Geophys. 32 1–18
DiNezio P N, Vecchi G A and Clement A C 2013 Detectability of
changes in the Walker circulation in response to global
warming J. Clim. 26 4038–48
Dvorak V F 1975 Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting
from satellite imagery from satellite imagery Mon. Wea. Rev.
103 420–30
Emanuel K A 1986 An air-sea interaction theory for tropical
cyclones: I. Steady-state maintenance J. Atmos. Sci. 43
585–604
Emanuel K A 2005 Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones
over the past 30 years Nature 436 686–8
Gentry M S and Lackmann G M 2010 Sensitivity of simulated
tropical cyclone structure and intensity to horizontal
resolution Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 688–704
Gray W M 1975 Tropical cyclone genesis in the Western North
Pacific Envpredrschfac Technical Paper No 16–75 p 66
Hansen G, Auffhammer M and Solow A R 2014 On the attribution
of a single event to climate change J. Climate 27 8297–301
IPCC, Climate Change 2013 The physical science basis Contribution
of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge,
United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press) p 1535
Kain J S and Fritsch J M 1990 A one-dimensional entraining/
detraining plume model and its application in convective
parameterization J. Atmos. Sci. 47 2784–802
Kain J S and Fritsch J M 1993 Convective parameterization for
mesoscale models: the Kain-Fritcsh scheme The
Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models
ed K A Emanuel and D J Raymond (Boston, MA: American
Meteorological Society) p 246
Kanada S, Nakano M, Wada A and Kato T 2012 Effect of PBL
schemes on the development of intense tropical cyclones
using a cloud resolving model J. Gophys. Res. 117 D3
Kim S-Y, Yasuda T and Mase H 2008 Numerical analysis of effects of
tidal variations on storm surges and waves Appl. Ocean Res.
30 311–22
Knutson T R and Tuleya R E 2004 Impact of CO2-induced warming
on simulated Hurricane intensity and precipitation:
Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective
parameterization J. Clim. 17 3477–95
Lin I-I, Pun I-F and Lien C-C 2014 ‘Category-6’ supertyphoon
Haiyan in global warming hiatus: contribution from
subsurface ocean warming Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 8547–53
Lin N, Emanuel K, Oppenheimer M and Vanmarcke E 2012
Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under
climate change Nat. Clim. Change 2 462–7
9
Mori N, Kato M, Kim S, Mase H, Shibutani Y, Takemi T,
Tsuboki K and Yasuda T 2014 Local amplification of storm
surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf, Geo Research
Letters 41 5106–13
Otto F E L, Massey N, van Oldenborgh G J, Jones R G and Allen M R
2012 Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010
Russian heat wave Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L04702
Pall P, Aina T, Stone D A, Stott P A, Nozawa T, Hilberts A G J,
Lohman D and Allen M R 2011 Anthropogenic greenhouse
gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in
autumn 2000 Nature 470 380–4
Rayner N A, Parker D E, Holton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V,
Rowell D P, Kent E C and Kaplan A 2003 Global analysis of
sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air
temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res.
108 4407
Saito K, Kuroda T, Kunii M and Kohno N 2010 Numerical
simulation of Myanmar cyclone Nargis and the associated
storm surge: II. Ensemble prediction J. Met. Soc. Japan 88
547–70
Saito K 2011 Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the
mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the meteorological
research institute for the WWRP Bsijing 2008 Olympics
research and development project (B08RDB) Tellus 63A
445–67
Sakai R 2009 The one-week ensemble prediction system at JMA
Annual Report of Numerical Prediction Division, JMA 55
117–25 (in Japanese)
Sasaki H, Murata A, Hanafusa M, Oh’izumi M and Kurihara K 2011
Reproducibility of present climate in a non-hydrostatic
regional climate model nested within an atmosphere general
circulation model SOLA 7 173–6
Schiermeier Q 2013 Did climate change cause Typhoon Haiyan?
Nature doi:10.1038/nature.2013.14139
Shiogama H, Watanabe M, Imada Y, Mori M, Kamae Y, Ishii M and
Kimoto M 2014 Attribution of the June-July 2013 heat wave
in the southwestern United States SOLA 10 122–6
Sweet W, Sweet W., Zerbas C., Gill S. and Park J. 2013
Hurricane Sandy inundation probabilities today and
tomorrow [in Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a
climate perspective] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 94 S17–20
Skamarock W C, Klemp J B, Dudhia J, Gill D O, Barker D M,
Duda M G, Huang X-Y, Wang W and Powers J G 2 2008 A
description of the advaned research WRF version 3 NCAR
Teck. Note 475 113 National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, Colo. (2008)
Tajima T et al 2014 Initial report of JSCE joint survey on the storm
surge disaster caused by Typhoon Haiyan Coastal Eng. J. 56
1450006
Tang B and Emanuel K 2010 Midlevel ventilation constraint on
tropical cyclone intensity J. Atmos. Sci. 67 1817–30
Tang B and Emanuel K 2012 A ventilation index for tropical
cyclones Bull. Atmes. Met. Soc. 92 1901–12
Tokinaga H, Xie S-P, Desar C, Kosaka Y and Okumura Y M 2012
Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical IndoPacific warming Nature 491 439–43
Vincent E M, Emanuel K A, Lengaigne M, Vialard J and Madec G
2014 Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual
variability on tropical cyclones J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 6
680–99
Watanabe M et al 2010 Improved climate simulation by MIROC5:
mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity J. Climate 23
6312–35
Weatherford C L and Gray W M 1988 Typhoon structure as revealed
by aircraft reconnaissance: II. Structural variability Mon.
Wea. Rev. 116 1044–56
Wolski P, Stone D, Tadross M, Wehner M and Hewitson B 2014
Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa
J. Hydrology 511 350–8
Woodworth P L, White N J, Jevrejeva S, Holgate S J, Church J A and
Gehrels W R 2008 Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on
multi-decade and century timescales Int. J. Climatol. 29 777–89