If, however, fossil fuel emissions are not soon abated but instead continue in a
range from constant emissions to that increasing by 2 %yr-1, then extraction through
technological means required to avert catastrophic climate change will be in the range of
~595 to 1530 PgC, at a cost of $89-535 trillion, or $1.1-6.7 trillion per year if spread over
80 years. For reference, total world military spending in 2016 was 1.7 trillion.7
For the latter scenarios, my colleagues and I were forced to conclude that “rather
than the world being able to buy its way out of climate change, continued high emissions
would likely force humanity to live with climate change running out of control with all
the consequences that would entail.” Id. at 16.
Based on the above, I must conclude, again, that it is critically important that
fossil fuel emissions be phased out as rapidly as possible, and that the commencement of
serious emissions reductions be undertaken without further delay. The carbon majors
must be held to account for their historic emissions. But with respect to what should be
sought in remedy, I note that, in my expert opinion and for all practical purposes, feasible
carbon drawdown efforts can avert catastrophic climate impacts only where such
necessary efforts are additional to a rapid phase out of fossil fuel emissions.
Accordingly, I urge the Commission to address both prongs of this ultimate
problem with courage and determination. Thank you for your consideration.
Stockholm International Peace Res. Inst., World Military Expenditures 1988-2016, at
www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2017/world-military-spending-increases-usaand-europe.
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