Memorandum for the Petitioners | 79 Philippines is, therefore, compromised. The United Nations estimates that up to thirteen percent (13%) of mangroves in the Pacific Island countries and territories will disappear due to sea-level rise alone by 2100.°°° C. Increasing intensity of tropical cyclones 8.18. In the past sixty-five (65) years there has been a slight decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones passing through the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), but a slight increase in the frequency of extreme tropical cyclones with maximum wind speeds of 150 kph or greater. This has led to an increase in the annual rate of damage and costs caused to the Philippines.’ By the mid-21* century, assuming large increases in GHG concentrations, tropical cyclones in the Philippine region will likely remain the same or decrease. In the same period, however, results show an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Philippines.>** 8.19. More than six thousand people lost their lives and over a million dwellings were destroyed from super typhoon Haiyan. In total, more than 16 Million people were in some way affected by the typhoon? Super Typhoon Mangkhut made landfall in northern Philippines as a category 5 last Tragically, the cascading consequences are still September 2018. unfolding.*”° 8.20. As further explained in Section D, Part VIII below, there is scientific evidence that that climate change likely made super typhoon Haiyan more intense— as it had larger maximum wind coverage, it had moved faster, and it had higher storm surges at shore.*4! D. Rainfall 8.21. Climate projections made by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), PAGASA, and others, based on 336 UNEP (2006), Pacific Island Mangroves in a Changing Climate and Rising Sea, p. 9, available at https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.1 1822/11812/rsrs179.pdf?sequence=1 &isAllowed=y (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 337 De Guzman, R., supra note 302, pp. 97-98. 338 Ibid; also Exhibit “Y” to “Y-27,” Printed PowerPoint presentation of Ms. Rosalina de Guzman, entitled “Observed Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines,” slide 27. 339 Effects of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), p. 3, available at http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1329/Effects_o f_ Typhoon _YOLANDA_(HAIYAN) SitRep _No_10_10NOV2013_0600H.pdf (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 340 See Exhibit “EEEEEEE” to “EEEEEEE-3,” Statement of Brenda Ekwurzel, dated 20 September 2018, p. 3, citing Soria, J. L. A., Switzer, A. D., Villanoy, C. L., Fritz, H. M., Bilgera, P. H. T., Cabrera, O. C., Siringan, F. P., Maria, Y. Y. S., Ramos, R. D., and Fernandez, 1. Q., 2015, Repeat storm surge disasters of Typhoon Haiyan and its 1897 predecessor in the Philippines, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00245.1. 341 Ibid.