Memorandum for the Petitioners | 77 of loss of habitat (medium confidence). Risks of impacts and decreasing food security are projected to become greater as global warming reaches beyond 1.5°C and both ocean warming and acidification increase, with substantial losses likely for coastal livelihoods and industries (c.g., fisheries and aquaculture). 376 8.14. Indeed, a study by Cheung et al. concludes that projected changes in catch potential in 2055 show a slightly increasing trend for the area north of the Philippines, and a stronger decreasing trend for the area south of the Philippines.22” This has a direct impact on petitioners’ food security.” The projected changes also show a huge reduction of between 31% and 50% in available fish catch due to temperature change alone.” In her testimony before the Honorable Commission, expert witness Dr. Laura David, Professor at the Marine Science Institute of the University of the Philippines Diliman, explains: If you take a look at the map, the Philippines is actually located on the left-middle side right next to the And you see there is already a predicted great Pacific. reduction of fifty percent (50%) of available fish catch by year 2050. Aside from this, locally, we also have fish that is only used to certain degrees of temperature. So it’s very much like somebody that’s used to living in Baguio and then you go down to Manila. There’s this temperature difference. But in the case of fish, it affects their function dramatically, such that they would rather go to somewhere colder if this happens. So that means they either go in higher latitude or Either reaction would result to less they go deeper. accessibility to our fishermen. Aside from this, those that cannot migrate— because there are certain fish who live only in certain areas like mangroves, sea grass, corals— the end result would be recruitment failure. Meaning, the next generation, when they give birth, can no longer survive in that area. So the adults would remain for a while, but the next generation would disappear.3?° 326 IPCC SR 1.5, supra note 319, Technical Summary, p. 38. 327 Mastrandrea, ef al. (2010), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, citing op. cit. Cheung, W., et al. (2010), Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16[1], pp. 24-35., supra note 325, at Figure 2; See also Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2018), /mpacis of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options, p. 622, available at https://mobil.wwf.de/fileadmin/fm-wwf/lichtblick/F AO-Report-2018.pdf (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 328 David, L., supra note 313, p. 137. 329 Id - also Exhibit “FF” to “FF-7,” Printed PowerPoint presentation of Maria Lourdes San DiegoMcGlone, PhD; Laura David, PhD; and Porfirio Alifio, PhD, entitled “How Increased CO2 Affects the Oceans,” slide 9. 330 David, L., supra note 313, p. 137.