Memorandum for the Petitioners | 31 5.17. In August 2019, the IPCC released the Special Report Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) and, in September 2019, it will publish the Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (forthcoming).* 5.18. An analysis of the 2018 IPCC SR 1.5 elicits the following key material facts: 5.18.1. “Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming.”®? Analyzing the IPCC SR 1.5 shows that a 2°C temperature rise is much more dangerous than initially considered at the time that the Paris Agreement was signed.” 5.18.2. “Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.”?! This 0.5°C rise will increase widespread impacts, risks, and losses, including “warming of extreme temperatures (...), increases in frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation (...), and an increase in intensity or frequency of droughts (...),”°? depending on the region. 5.18.3. A 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels could be enough to destabilize Arctic sea-ice, decline warm water coral reefs from 70-90%, increase the amount of damage to many ecosystems, drive the loss of coastal resources, productivity of fisheries and aquaculture.” 5.18.4. and reduce Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase significantly with global warming of 1.5°C and increase still further with a 2°C rise in temperature. 5.18.5. The IPCC SR 1.5’s 4 scenarios for GHG reductions (called pathways: P1, P2, P3, and P4) indicate that rapid, large-scale emissions reductions, together with natural carbon sequestration, are needed to meet either the Paris 88 IPCC Reports, available at https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/ (last accessed on 12 September 2019). 89 IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, Sec. B.1. p. 7 [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pértner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)] (hereinafter, “IPCC 2018 Summary for Policymakers”), available at https:/Awww.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf, (last accessed on 12 September 2019). % IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Sec. B.1., p. 7. "id, Sec. A.l., p. 4. °21d, Sec. B.1.1, p. 7. 3]d., Sec. B.4. 4 Id, Sec. B.S.