Statement of Glenn Stuart Hodes
Climate Policy Expert
I am honored to appear today before the Philippines Commission on Human Rights
on its 3rd public hearing (29-30 August 2018). The petitioners have invited me as an
independent resource person as a climate policy and development expert on the
subject of valuing climate change impacts, its role as a risk multiplier for
agricultural livelihoods, and policies for promoting more accountability to close
gaps in financing and implementing appropriate responses. A copy of my
Curriculum Vitae is appended to this statement. The views expressed herein are mine
alone and do not represent those of the United Nations Development Programme.
That climate change poses a real threat to sustainable development and social
equality in the Philippines is irrefutable. Climate change represents a material risk
confronting business and can be acknowledged as a multiplier of other risks. Various
interconnected impact chains directly and indirectly link climate change to other
factors that can challenge peoples’ ability to work, their levels of income and
productivity, and overall quality of life. In the most extreme cases, these impacts can
impinge upon basic human rights such as the right to life, to health, and to food and
water. Socioeconomic development indicators including multidimensional poverty
are widely recognized by development economists to be very sensitive to negative
impacts and shocks that climate-related hazards and disasters bring. These include
those related to employment, food security, water access, physical health and
psychological wellbeing.
The Philippines consistently ranks among the top ten countries most at risk to the
adverse physical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, taking into
consideration its location, resource endowments, demographics, infrastructure and
other factors.1 Storms (and typhoons in particular), landslides, and floods present the
primary hazards and climate-related risk factors facing the country. Reviews of
scientific studies and climate models predict that heavy rainfall is likely to increase
in both intensity and frequency under a changing climate, exacerbating flooding in
flood-prone areas, increasing landslide and mudslide risk, and introducing risk to
new areas. El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns are projected to worsen,
contributing to more frequent cyclones passing through Central Philippines.2
Valuing these impacts remains complex, due to multiple impact chains and
mechanisms for both direct and indirect damage and losses. According to the 2018
World Economic Forum Global Risk Report, economic losses from natural and manmade disasters in 2017 are projected to increase from USD 188 billion in 2016 to
USD 306 billion. Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 affected some 14.1 million people and
caused more than USD 700 million in damage to the agriculture sector. Indirect
losses from climate-related disasters, which are typically far more detrimental to
economic activity than direct losses and damages, extend to disrupted flow and
1
While rankings shift year-to-year, these indexes take into account multi-dimensional criteria. In the Germanwatch Global
Climate Risk Index, the country ranked fifth with respect to long-term risks to climate change over the period of 1994 to 2014.
National and urban indexes on climate change vulnerability compiled by Verisk Maplecroft also indicate a relatively very high
degree of vulnerability to different climate change impacts. See: www.maplecroft.com
2For additional details on climate change impact scenarios, see: Oscar M. Lopez Center. 2017 Philippines Climate Assessment.
As well as data available in NASA and Columbia University Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. CIESIN portal.
1