Constrained by the dependency of the regional characteristics to sea surface temperature (SST) distributions in the future, this is also assumed for the region of SEA.37 Model results also suggest an increase in storm-centered rainfall.38 • The importance of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon for the variability of tropical cyclones (TCs)39 and precipitation40 is large. But according to the IPCC, the confidence in projected changes for the future remains low. • All the mentioned impacts of climate change represent a large burden for society and the natural diversity in the country. Many people depend on agriculture or aquaculture sectors that are strongly susceptible to climatic conditions. For agriculture, the literature lists many issues: droughts, saltwater intrusion, SLR, TCs, temperature (in particular nighttime temperature) increase, precipitation patterns, diseases, insects, and land degradation. SLR and saltwater intrusion only play a minor role, as most agriculture in the country does not take place in coastal areas.41 It is not possible to judge which of the other stressors is most important. This depends on the region and the local conditions, e.g. type and variety of crops, distance to flood prone areas, etc. Droughts have already resulted in widespread impact on food supplies in the country. According to the literature they could be more frequent in the future42 and their impact will be amplified by population growth. As these factors add pressure to agricultural yields that are already stressed, adequate adaptation measures should be taken. Unlike historical cases, famines today can be buffered with the national or global market, but                                                                                                                 37 M. Sugi & H. Murakami & J. Yoshimura, A Reudction in Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Due to Global Warming, 5 SOLA 164 (2009). 38 K. Emmanuel & R. Sundaranjan & J. Williams, Hurricanes and global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations, 89(3) BULL. AMER. METEOR. SOC. 347 (2008); T.R. Knutson & J.L. McBride…&…M. Sugi, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, 3 NATURE GEOSCIENCE 157 (2010). 39 K. Emmanuel, Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation, 20(22) JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5497, 5497; H. Kubota & J.C.L. Chan, Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005, 36(12) GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2009). 40 A.M. Jose & N.A. Cruz, Climate Change Impacts and Responses in the Philippines: Water Resources, 12(7784) CLIMATE RESEARCH 77, 81 (1999); B. Lyon, H. Cristi, E.R. Verceles, F.D. Hilario, R. Abastillas, Seasonal Reversal of the ENSO Rainfall Signal in the Philippines, 33(24) GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2006); G.P. Yumul Jr. & N.T. Servando & C.B. Dimalanta & N.A. Cruz, The Meteorologically Abnormal Year of 2006 and Natural Disasters in the Philippines, 31(4) EPISODES 378 (2008); F. Hilario & R. de Guzman & D. Ortega & P. Hayman & B. Alexander, El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Philippines: Impacts, Forecasts, and Risk Management, XXXVI(66) PHILIPPINE JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT 10 (2009); P.A. Jaranilla-Sanchez & L. Wang & T. Koike, Modeling the Hydrologic Responses of the Pampanga River Basin, Philippines: A quantitative Approach for Identifying Droughts, 47(3) WATER RESOURCES JOURNAL (2011). 41 Crepin, Christophe. 2013. Getting a grip on climate change in the Philippines : executive report. Public Expenditure Review (PER). Washington DC ; World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17917169/getting-grip-climate-change-philippinesexecutive-report (last accessed June 19, 2015). 42 I.H. Taylor & E. Burke & L. McColl & P.D. Falloon & G.R. Harris & D. McNeall, Contributions to Uncertainty in Projections of Future Drought Under Climate Change Scenarios, 9(11) HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCES DISCUSSIONS 12613 (2012); J. Sillmann & V.V. Kharin & F.W. Zwiers & X. Zhang & D. Bronaugh, Climate Extreme Indices in the CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble: Part 2: Future Climate Projections, 2013 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 1. Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50188/abstract (last accessed June 19, 2015); M.Q. Villafuerte II & J. Matsumoto & I. Akasaka & H.G. Takahashi & H. Kubota & T.A. Cinco, Long-term Trends and Variability of Rainfall Extremes in the Philippines, 137 ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 1 (2014).