Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-017-1978-0
The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature,
and sea level from emissions traced to major
carbon producers
B. Ekwurzel 1 & J. Boneham 2 & M. W. Dalton 2,3 &
R. Heede 4 & R. J. Mera 1,5 & M. R. Allen 2 & P. C. Frumhoff 6
Received: 19 August 2016 / Accepted: 23 April 2017
# The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication
Abstract Researchers have quantified the contributions of industrialized and developing nations’ historical emissions to global surface temperature rise. Recent findings that nearly twothirds of total industrial CO2 and CH4 emissions can be traced to 90 major industrial carbon
producers have drawn attention to their potential climate responsibilities. Here, we use a simple
climate model to quantify the contribution of historical (1880–2010) and recent (1980–2010)
emissions traced to these producers to the historical rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface
temperature, and sea level. Emissions traced to these 90 carbon producers contributed ∼57% of
the observed rise in atmospheric CO2, ∼42–50% of the rise in global mean surface temperature
(GMST), and ∼26–32% of global sea level (GSL) rise over the historical period and ∼43%
(atmospheric CO2), ∼29–35% (GMST), and ∼11–14% (GSL) since 1980 (based on bestestimate parameters and accounting for uncertainty arising from the lack of data on aerosol
forcings traced to producers). Emissions traced to seven investor-owned and seven majority
state-owned carbon producers were consistently among the top 20 largest individual company
contributors to each global impact across both time periods. This study lays the groundwork for
A Springboard Commentary to this paper is available at doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2042-9.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1978-0)
contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* B. Ekwurzel
bekwurzel@ucsusa.org
1
Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC 20006, USA
2
University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
3
Present address: London, UK
4
Climate Accountability Institute, Snowmass, CO 81654, USA
5
Present address: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
6
Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA 02238, USA