II. THE SCIENTIFIC STANDARD NECESSARY TO PROTECT FILIPINOS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE REQUIRES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 350 PPM BY THE END OF THE CENTURY Current science indicates that, to protect the earth’s systems, the long-term increase in the average global surface temperature of the earth above preindustrial temperatures must stay below 1°C.2 Having global average surface temperatures approach 2°C for any length of time would be highly dangerous. 3 In 2015, for the first time ever, global average surface temperatures reached 1°C.4 Populations around the world are already experiencing significant impacts from the 1°C warming that has occurred. 5 These impacts include more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including drought and flooding, ocean acidification, extensions in the range of vectorborne infectious disease, and accelerated mass extinction. 6 These impacts constitute harbingers of far more dangerous changes to come. If unabated, continued GHG emissions, in particular CO2, “will initiate dynamic climate change and effects that spin out of human control, as the planet’s energy imbalance triggers amplifying feedbacks and the climate and biological systems pass critical tipping points.”7 Such changes would be irreversible and yield a different planet from the one on which human civilization developed.8 The non-binding emission reduction pledges made by States pursuant to the Paris Climate Agreement would likely result in an increase in emissions through 2030 and cause climate 2 Given the long-term effects of CO2 in the atmosphere, past emissions may result in 1.5 °C peak in global surface heating for a period of time; however, emissions must be reduced to ensure that long-term temperatures, after peaking, stabilize at no more than 1 °C above preindustrial levels. To stabilize at 1 °C requires a mean atmospheric concentration of CO2 of no more than 350 ppm. James Hansen et al., Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature, PLOS ONE 8:12, 3763 (2013) [hereinafter Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”]; Exhibit A, Declaration of Dr. James E. Hansen in Support of Our Children’s Trust et al.’s Submission to the UN Committee on the Rights of Child Regarding State Obligations, Children’s Rights and Climate Change (Aug. 19, 2016), attached and available at http://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/s/HansenCRCDeclaration.pdf; Exhibit B, Our Children’s Trust, Policies Must Be Based on 350 ppm and 1 Degree Celsius to Protect Young People and Future Generations (2016), attached and available at http://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/s/OCT_Why350ppm.pdf; see also James Hansen et al., Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms; Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modelling, and Modern Observations that 2ºC Global Warming Could be Dangerous. 16 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3761, 3801 (2015); James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren 166 (2009) [hereinafter Storms]. 3 Exhibits A, B; see also Hansen et al., Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change,” at 15 (noting that a 2°C increase would result in an “unacceptably high risk of global catastrophe”). 4 World Meteorological Organization (WMO), WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2015, WMONo. 1167, 1, 5 (2016) [hereinafter Status Global Climate 2015], available at http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/news/News/201603/P020160322334697539255.pdf (“The global average temperature for the year was about 0.76 ± 0.09 °C above the 1961–1990 average, and approximately 1 °C above the 1850–1900 average.”). While the increase in temperature averaged across the surface of the globe was 1 °C in 2015, local temperature increases were much higher in some portions of the world. For example, Alaska reached 4 °C above 1961-1990 levels. Id. at 6. 5 For a list of global impacts felt in 2015, see, e.g., WMO, Status Global Climate 2015, at 11-20. 6 Exhibits A, B; see also Anthony J. McMichael, Globalization, Climate Change, and Human Health. 368 N. Engl. J. Med. 1335, 1340 (2013) [hereinafter Climate Change and Human Health]; see also Mark C. Urban, Accelerating Extinction Risk from Climate Change, 348 Sci. 571, 572 (2015) [hereinafter Accelerating Extinction]. 7 Exhibit A, ¶ 17; see also Hansen et al., Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change,” at 15. 8 Exhibit A, ¶ 69; Hansen et al., Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change,” at 15. Our Children’s Trust Amicus Curiae Brief 2