Mr. A. M. Natk i n
-2-
August 25, 1982
required for doubling of atmosPheric CO, depends on future world
consumption of fossil fue1s. current piojections indicate that
doubling will occur sonetime in the latter half of the 2lst
changes
centuryl The models predict that co2-inducedIt climate
generally
is
doub1ing.
should be observable well before
believed that the first unambiguous CO2-induced temPerature
increase wiIl not be observable until Eround the year 2000.
It should be ernphasized that the consensus prediction
scientists have
of global warming is not unaninous. Several
of the prevaLidity
takln positions that openly guestion the
which
proposed
mechanisms
dictions of the nodels, and a few have
of
these
most
serious
could mitigate a CO2 warming. One of the
proposals has been fiade by Professor Reginald Newe11-of.MIT.
ire*if f noted that geoJ-ogical evidence points to a relative constancy of the tenp;ratu;e of the equatorial waters over hundreds
view of
of miilions of yelrs. This constancy is remarkable inaturing
this
ihanges in other regions of the earth
ni:o,
Newell asciibed this anctloring of the temPerature of the
p.iioa."fi."tic
this
Lquatorial waters to an evaporative buffering nechanisn. - In
the
of
mos!
equator,
at
the
increases
when
heating
mechanism,
extra energy induces greater rates of evaporatlon rather than
night
raising tefr-peratures. Newe11 proposed that this effectatmospheric
increased
of
effect
global
warming
tieatfi redlce the
coz'
In our clinate research we have explored the 91oba1
effects of Newelfrs evaporative buffering mechanism using a
simple mathematical climate model. Our findings indlicate- that
Hewill's effect is indeed an imPortant factor in the earthrs does
climate systen. As Newe11 predicted, evaporative bufferlng
limit cor:induced tenperature changes in the equatorial
regions.- However, we find a compensatingly Iarger temperature
inirease in the polar regions, giving a global averaged temPerathe scientific
ture increase thlt fa1ls well within the range ofpublished
with
the
are
consistent
Our
results
Predicconsensus.
in
agreement
are
also
They
models.
cl.imate
conplex
tions of more
a
with estinates of the global temperature distribution during
than
nuch
warmer
was
period
the
earth
when
prehistoric
certain
tod a y.
In summary, the results of our research are in accord
with the scientific consensus on the effect of increased atnospheric co, on climate. our research appears to reconcile
NewelI's 5bservations and proposed mechanisn r.tith the consensus
opinion.
we are now ready to present our research to the scientific community through the usual mechanisms of conference Presentations and publications in appropriate journals. I have
enclosed a detailed plan for presenting our results.