Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (2017) 084019
Table 2. Definitions of the Endorsement, Impact, and Solvable Points used to code levels of acknowledgment of AGW as real and
human-caused, serious, and solvable, respectively. See section S1, supplementary information, for details on the content analysis and
coding scheme.
AGW as Real and Human-Caused
Endorsement points (EPs)
Description
‘Acknowledge’ (EP1) Explicit endorsement with quantification
‘No position’
‘Doubt’
Explicitly supports position that humans are the primary cause
of global warming (with quantification)
(EP2) Explicit endorsement without quantification
Explicitly supports position that humans are the primary cause
of global warming (without quantification) or refers to
anthropogenic global warming as a known fact
(EP3a) Implicit endorsement
Implicitly supports position that humans are the primary
cause of global warming. e.g. research assumes greenhouse gas
emissions cause warming without explicitly stating humans are
the cause
(EP3b) Implicit endorsement of consensus
Implicitly supports position that humans are the primary
cause of global warming by referring to a consensus of the
scientific community
(EP4a) No position
Does not address the cause of global warming
(EP4b- 1) Uncertain of reality of AGW
Expresses position that the reality of recent global warming is
uncertain/undefined, namely ‘it’s not happening’
2) Uncertain of human contribution to AGW Expresses position that the human contribution to recent
global warming is uncertain/undefined, namely ‘it’s not us’
AGW as Serious
Impact points (IPs)
Description
‘Acknowledge’ (IP1) Acknowledgment
‘No position’
(IP2) No position
‘Doubt’
(IP3) Uncertain
Acknowledges and/or articulates known or predicted negative
impacts of global warming e.g. geophysical, economic, sociopolitical
Does not address the negative impacts of global warming
(beyond generic references to climate change as a ‘risk’)
Expresses position that the reality of negative impacts of global
warming is uncertain/undefined/exaggerated, namely ‘it’s not
bad’
AGW as Solvable
Solvable points (SPs)
‘Doubt’
Description
(SP1) Uncertain
Expresses position that the difficulties of mitigating global
warming are potentially insurmountable and/or exceed the
benefits, namely ‘it’s too hard’
Level (EL) (intercoder reliability of Endorsement
Levels: 89%; Kripp. a ¼ 0:85): ‘No Position’ (all text
and figures are EP4a only); ‘Acknowledge’ (EP1–3
only); ‘Acknowledge and Doubt’ (EP1–3 and EP4b);
‘Reasonable Doubt’ (EP4b only, deemed reasonable as
defined above); or ‘Doubt’ (EP4b only, deemed
unreasonable). ‘Acknowledge and Doubt’ reflects the
fact that some communications acknowledge aspects
of AGW yet emphasize other areas of doubt or
uncertainty.
Our filtering of reasonable doubt (see also section
S1.4.2, supplementary information) helps address the
challenge of characterizing the positions of documents
published during a period of rapidly evolving scientific
opinion. Otherwise, however, our coding scheme is
agnostic to each document’s publication year.
2.1.2. ‘Serious’
We assign ‘Impact Points’ (IP1 to IP3, defined in
table 2) throughout each document based on its
4
positions on AGW as having known or predicted
negative impacts (for example, geophysical, economic,
or sociopolitical) (intercoder reliability of Impact
Points: 94%; Kripp. a ¼ 0:86). Each document is then
assigned one of four overall Impact Levels (ILs): ‘No
Position’ (all text and figures are IP2 only);
‘Acknowledge’ (IP1 only); ‘Acknowledge and Doubt’
(IP1 and IP3); or ‘Doubt’ (IP3 only) (intercoder
reliability of Impact Levels: 89%; Kripp. a ¼ 0:77).
2.1.3. ‘Solvable’
We identify documents that express ‘Doubt’ (SP1,
defined in table 2) as to whether AGW can be
mitigated or whether the costs of doing so exceed the
benefits (intercoder reliability: 97%; Kripp. a ¼ 0:84).
While the question of AGW’s solvability is not
resolvable on purely technical grounds, the relative
extent to which documents promote doubt on the
matter remains relevant to the character of climate
communications, insofar as assertions that AGW