responsibility for excess greenhouse gas emissions. Second, developed countries may argue that
it is simply impractical to divide even the final third of the pie on a per-capita basis, as the much
larger per-capita emissions of developed countries cannot suddenly be reversed. 188 Both
arguments have merit. Nevertheless, it may be possible to develop a hybrid approach that
addresses both sets of concerns, and ensures that pragmatism does not come at the expense of
equity (and vice versa).189
The carbon budgets and the Paris Agreement also have clear implications for the future
activities and operations of the Carbon Majors named in the Petition. Detailed economic research
on “stranded assets” has been developed in detail by, among others, the think tank Carbon
Tracker. This research identifies those fossil fuel reserves held by the Carbon Majors that will
become unburnable if States act to limit climate change in accordance with the Paris
Agreement.190
B.
Prescription for stabilizing atmospheric concentration of CO2 at < 350
ppm by 2100 (Hansen, Our Children’s Trust)
Best-available climate science indicates that even the most ambitious of the Paris
Agreement’s politically-negotiated temperature targets, 1.5°C, is dangerously high. Rather, to
prevent catastrophic ecological harm, warming must be limited to a long-term maximum of 1°C
above preindustrial temperatures.191 To meet this 1°C scientific standard, atmospheric CO2 must
be reduced from its current level of over 400 ppm to less than 350 ppm by the end of this century
(the < 350 ppm target).192 Leading scientists have identified a two-step prescription for
stabilizing the climate system, which requires a phase out of CO2 emissions worldwide within
decades, combined with a drawdown of excess CO2 from the atmosphere so as to reduce
atmospheric CO2 to < 350ppm by 2100.193
Reductions of emissions must begin promptly and must occur at a significant rate on an
annual basis, i.e., leisurely reductions of one or two percent per year will not suffice. 194 States,
including the Philippines, must immediately cease actions supporting fossil fuels and the fossil
188
Id.
For an example of such an approach, see Plan B brief, at § 7 (pgs. 51-53).
190
CARBON TRACKER INSTITUTE, UNBURNABLE CARBON 2013: WASTED CAPITAL AND STRANDED ASSETS (2013),
http://www.carbontracker.org/report/unburnable-carbon-wasted-capital-and-stranded-assets/; ClientEarth brief, at ¶
68.
191
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change,” supra note 149, at 15; Our Children’s Trust brief, at p. 2, n. 2; Our
Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit A (Hansen Declaration); Our Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit B.
192
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change,” supra note 149; Facts, Carbon Dioxide, NASA,
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/(last visited July 10, 2016).
193
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change,” supra note 149, at 10; Amicus curiae brief submitted by James E.
Hansen, at 2-3, https://businesshumanrights.org/sites/default/files/documents/2017.08.28_Jim.Hansen.Amicus_Comm_Human%20Rights_0.pdf
[hereinafter Hansen brief]; Our Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit A (Hansen Declaration), at ¶ 68; Our Children’s Trust
brief, Exhibit B, at p. 1, 6.
194
Our Children’s Trust brief, Exhibit A (Hansen Declaration), at ¶¶ 68-69.
189
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