economic data scenarios to the national and sub-national scales for a global climate impact assessment of
future food scarcity, water stress, exposure to malaria, coastal flood risk and wetland loss and terrestrial
ecosystems. They suggested that urban and rural growth rates be considered. Two limitations of the SRES
scenarios were identified: first, “there are considerable difficulties involved in moving from the scale at
which the SRES scenarios were produced (11–13 world regions) to the much finer spatial resolution
required by impacts models. A number of rather major assumptions had to be made, most specifically that
all parts of a region would change at the same rate: this was applied to population, GDP and land cover”
and; second, “whilst the SRES land cover trends are consistent with the narrative storylines, they are
inconsistent with recent trends. Under none of the storylines is there a sustained continued deforestation,
for example, and crop areas decrease under all of them”.
Ziervogel and Eriksen (2010) offer a framework for assessing the impacts of climate change on food
security. They discussed linkages between climate change (temperature, precipitation, and extreme
weather events), food security (availability, accessibility, stability and utilization) and its drivers (cycles
for consistency, agricultural management, socio-economic variables, demographic change, cultural and
political variables and science and technology).
Figure 4. Linkages between climate change and food security
Climate change
Food security drivers
Food security
Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme weather
events
Cycles for consistency
Agricultural management
Socio-economic variables
Demographic change
Cultural and political variables
Science and technology
Availability
Accessibility
Stability
Utilization
Source: Chart taken from Ziervogel and Eriksen, 2010
According to them, the key issues that should be addressed to respond to food insecurity and managing
transitions or innovation in cropping system include: chronic poverty, functioning markets, farmer attitudes
toward managing risks, and reforming or improving the institutions responsible for managing food and
agricultural systems.
In the Philippines, the Department of Agriculture expects the following impacts of different climatic events
as shown in the table 2:
Table 2. Expected impacts of global climate change in the Philippine agricultural sector
No
1
Climatic Events
Rainfall
Impact
Decrease by 20 percent, but
increase in intensity. Increase
Source/Assumptions
IPCC 2007
Godilano, E.C. 2005
FAO (2006)
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