coefficient of variation given the number of years
๐ถ๐๐ก =
๐๐ท๐ก
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
๐
๐น๐ก
where ๐๐ท๐ก is the standard deviation while the seasonality index takes on Walsh and Lawlerโs (1981)
measure
12
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
1|๐ฆ
๐
๐น
1
๐๐ผ๐ฆ =
|
โ |๐
๐น๐|๐ฆ โ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
1|๐ฆ
12
๐
๐น
๐=1
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
1|๐ฆ is the average for the year and ๐
๐น๐|๐ฆ is the value of rainfall on the ith month.
That is, for a given year y, ๐
๐น
The seasonality measure for a collection of years ๐ฆ is the average of all seasonality indices across those
years,
๐ฆ๐(๐ฆ)
1
๐๐ผ๐ฆ =
โ ๐๐ผ๐ฆ
๐(๐ฆ)
๐=๐ฆ1
The seasonality index facilitates measurement of the variability of rainfall in terms of seasonality over the
year. Sumner, et al (2001) provides indicative classification based on ๐๐ผ๐ฆ as shown in Table 5.
Table 5. Rainfall seasonality based on ๐บ๐ฐ๐
<0.19
0.20โ0.39
0.40โ0.59
0.60โ0.79
0.80โ0.99
1.00โ1.19
>1.20
Precipitation spread throughout the year
Precipitation spread throughout the year, but with a definite wetter season
Rather seasonal with a short drier season
Seasonal
Markedly seasonal with a long dry season
Most precipitation in <3 months
Extreme seasonality, with almost all precipitation in 1โ2 months
Given the aforementioned formulas, the climate shocks are measured through change in each climate
variable for each year compared to long run average which is set as 1979-2006. These were computed
using the following:
1. Change in current year average rainfall to long run average in 1979-2006:
๐๐
๐น๐ฆ = 100 (
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
๐
๐น1|๐ฆ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
ฬ
๐
๐น28|1979โ2006
โ 1)
2. Change in current year rainfall seasonality relative to long run seasonality in 1979-2006:
CBMS-FAO | 25
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