Policy Variables Both policy variables included in the models are significantly associated with income from crop farming and gardening. Across all models, a unit increase in spending on farm-to-market roads will increase income by 0.1 percent. Also, a unit increase in spending on irrigation for palay significantly increases income by 2-3 percent. These results imply that policies directed toward agriculture infrastructures will provide farmers higher income and as a result will increase food expenditure that will lead to reduce food insecurity. Location Location of familes as either in rural or urban areas significantly affect income from crop farming and gardening. For instance, income from crop farming and gardening of those families living in rural area is higher than those families in urban areas at about 10-13 percent. Effects of climate shocks on the likelihood of being food insecure Level of rainfall and temperature as climate shocks have opposite effects on food insecurity in the future. At the national level, proportion of food insecure families due to temperature shock will increase by 0.43 percent while relative change in level of rainfall will reduce proportion of food insecure families in the future by 0.18 percent.Variations on the effects of climate shocks are more pronounced at the regional level as shown in table 8. For rainfall shock, there are regions that are negatively affected but there are also regions that are positively affected. In particular, Caraga region will experience increase in proportion of familes who are food insecure in the future. However, nine regions namely Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Central and Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga, Northern Mindanao, Davao and ARMM will benefit from the change in rainfall and in turn lower proportion of food insecure families (Map 1). On the other hand, temperature shock will negatively affect almost all regions leading to increase in food insecure families as shown in Map 2. Table 8. Predicted and projected vulnerability, rainfall and temperature model, FIES 2009 Region Predicted 2009 Rainfall Projected (20112040) Temperature Predicted 2009 Projected (20112040) 13.45% 13.27% 13.45% 13.88% I - Ilocos Region 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 4.05% II - Cagayan Valley 1.68% 1.57% 1.57% 2.13% III - Central Luzon 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 2.47% IVA - CALABARZON 5.52% 5.52% 5.52% 5.71% 11.31% 10.89% 11.31% 12.15% VI - Western Visayas 8.65% 8.65% 8.65% 9.16% VII - Central Visayas 27.94% 27.33% 28.06% 28.43% VIII - Eastern Visayas 17.40% 17.30% 17.30% 17.82% IX - Zamboanga Peninsula 29.33% 29.07% 29.33% 29.33% X - Northern Mindanao 21.48% 21.19% 21.34% 21.77% Philippines V - Bicol Region CBMS-FAO | 34