π‘Žπ‘”π‘Ÿπ‘– π‘–π‘›π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘’, β„Žβ„Ž β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘π‘ , π‘Žπ‘π‘π‘’π‘ π‘  π‘‘π‘œ π‘šπ‘–π‘”π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘›π‘’π‘™π‘ , food expenditure = 𝑓 +𝑒 β„Žπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘’β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘ 𝑑𝑀𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔, π‘›π‘œπ‘› βˆ’ π‘Žπ‘”π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘™ π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘ , π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘–π‘›π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘Ž, (β„Žπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘’β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘ π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘›π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘, π‘ π‘œπ‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘–π‘›π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘Ž, π‘ π‘œπ‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘‘π‘’π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›) (3) where the same function for agricultural income. On the other hand, IV probit regression will be implemented on CBMS data with dependent variable malnutrition,3 π‘Žπ‘”π‘Ÿπ‘– π‘–π‘›π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘’, β„Žβ„Ž β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘π‘ , π‘Žπ‘π‘π‘’π‘ π‘  π‘‘π‘œ π‘šπ‘–π‘”π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘›π‘’π‘™π‘ , Pr(malnutrition) = 𝑓 +𝑒 β„Žπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘’β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘ 𝑑𝑀𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔, π‘›π‘œπ‘› βˆ’ π‘Žπ‘”π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘™ π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘ , π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘–π‘›π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘Ž, (β„Žπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘’β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘ π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘›π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘, π‘ π‘œπ‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘–π‘›π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘Ž, π‘ π‘œπ‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘‘π‘’π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›) (4) This is operationalized by focusing on households engaged in crop farming and gardening. They are approximately 30 percent of the original dataset, i.e. 12,000 households for FIES and 500,000 for CBMS. In the case of CBMS malnutrition, the focus will be on households with members 0-5 years old or 40% of the agricultural households, or about 220,000 households. Climatology measures Climate elements, in terms of rainfall and temperature, impact food insecurity through agricultural production (farming income). To operationally represent them, three measures of rainfall and two measures of temperature were explored: absolute level of rainfall, rainfall volatility, rainfall seasonality, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. Absolute level of rainfall is a function of the (moving) average of the monthly values of the climate variables, i.e. 12𝑑 Μ…Μ…Μ…Μ… 𝑅𝐹𝑑 = 1 βˆ‘ 𝑅𝐹𝑖 12𝑑 𝑖=1 Given the average rainfall, the standard deviation can be represented by 12𝑑 1 𝑆𝐷𝑑 = √ βˆ‘(𝑅𝐹𝑖 βˆ’ Μ…Μ…Μ…Μ… 𝑅𝐹𝑑 )2 12𝑑 βˆ’ 1 𝑖=1 where 𝑅𝐹𝑖 represents the rainfall value at month i and t is the number of years. Now, volatility is the 3 The first stage equation includes dummy for time (quarter) to control for the pooled time-series. CBMS-FAO | 24

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