xviii CARmll. MAR. STUD., SPECIAL EDITION, 2007 States (ACS) is to achieve an additional resolution which would declare the Sea a "special zone" in the context of sustainable development. Scenarios As part of the development of this assessment, lour scenarios illustrating possible futures l(Jr the Caribbean region up to 2050 were drawn up and analysed. These arc not intended as predictions of what will happen, but rather as tools to assess the consequences of certain plausible altemative pathways. Using our knowledge about the drivers of ecosystem change, scenarios can hdp to map out potential prospects for services such as tourism and fishing, depending on the values and priorities exercised by people inside and outside the Caribbean region in the coming decades. It is not part of the remit of this assessment to take a position on whether such a resolution is justified or necessary, although the infonnation contained within CARSE/\. should help to inlom1 the debate on this issue. It is important that the campaign over many years to achieve this status for the Caribbean should be seen as a means to an end, not an end in itself: This assessment has found very little evidence of action to implement the integrated management of the sea mentioned in the existing resolutions. The "storylines" and outcomes of the scenarios an: shown in Chapter 5 of this report. There has been no shortage of programmes and ad hoc initiatives aimed at addressing particular problems al11icting the marine environment of the Caribbean (for a summary of these programmes, sec Annex 3b). Some have had impressive results and can serve as models for future action. A challenging general message emerges from these scenarios. They suggest that in the short and medium tcnn, there may be little dillcrenee in tem1s of tangible costs and benefits to the population, between approaches which favour greater environmental care and regional co-operation, and those which prioritize unrestricted development and the dominance of intcmational market forces in the Caribbean. The outcomes only begin to diverge towards the middle part of this century, when continued neglect of ecosystems could start to create such degraded environments that the Caribbean would Jose its appeal for many tourists, and fish stocks might start to collapse. It is at this point that alternative scenarios start to reap benefits, lor example, where a more controlled approach to "niche'' tourism (in the scenario Quality over Quallfily) has produced a sustainable, higher-value induslly Jess susceptible to sudden shocks or surprises. The challenge lor policy-makers is that to avoid serious negative consequences lor the future, decisions, whose benefits may only be realized well beyond the nomml timecycles of politics, will need to be taken now. In other words, the changes required to secure a bclter long-term future for the Caribbean will require courage and vision. The good news is that these changes will incur no significant costs, and even in the short tct111 will enhance the quality of life of many in the region. The Policy Response - Options for Clmngc In 2006, the United Nations General Assembly passed the final of a series of resolutions recognizing the importance, uniqueness, and vulnerability of the Caribbean Sea, and stressing the need to take an integrated approach to its management. The interest of the Association of Caribbean However, these initiatives have been set up and operated by different governments, inter-governmental groups, and nongovenuncntal organizations, with little or no coordination between them. They arc also frequently directed at a specific sector or activity, and luck an overview of the ways in which programmes may conllict with one another, or produce better results with greater collaboration. As this assessment has shown. the interconnected nature of the ecosystem services of the Caribbean Sea, and of the threats they l[Jce, require a much broader outlook. Among the priorities for improvement of policy must be a better system of managing fisheries in the region, recognizing the value of the Sea as a complete ecosystem rather than a series of interlocking national territories; and capturing more of the value of tourism in the region, to be reinvested in measures to protect the natural beauty and diverse cultures without which there would be no tourists. To address the shortcomings of current management of the Caribbean Sea ecosystem, strong arguments have emerged during the CARSE/\. process lor a new technical commission or council, with responsibility lor the entire region (i.e., the Wider Caribbean) to be set up. Its precise title, status, and remit arc matters lor open debate, but some of its essential functions would be: • To monitor and assess the condition of the Caribbean Sea as an ecosystem, and to use that inlonnation to inlonn policy in the region. -20- To assess the el1cctiveness of existing programmes at all levels, and to o!Ter advice as to how they may be improved imd better co-ordinated.