SEA EcosYSlHI and foreign Similar experiences occurred in 1998 and 1999 with the passage or hurricanes Jose, Georges, and Lenny."' The cost associated with damage !rom Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 was in the region of J $25 million." Hurricanes Georges ami Mitch in 1998 aflcctcd Jamaica's tourism sector." Hurricane Lenny in 1999 caused approximately U.S. $250,000 damage to tourism inll·astructure in Dominica, mainly along the western Tourism arrivals in St. Kitts by air and sea were negatively aflccted by the passage of hurricanes Luis and Marilyn ( 1995), Georges ( 1998), and Jose ( 1999). 3" The precise relationship between human-induced climate change and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones remains a matter for scientific debate. Figure · 4.4 shows, however, that the Caribbean has recently been experiencing a phase of more frequent storms relative to the past I 00 years. Cu1Tent research also suggests that the coming decades arc likely to witness an increase in the destructive power of hurricanes, associated with higher sea-surface temperatures. potential Emmanuel (2005) dclincd an index lor destructiveness or hurricanes based on total release or power over the of the cyclone. This index is a better indication of tropical cyclone threat than storm frequency or intensity alone. Using this index, he tound there had been a marked increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones since the mid-l970s, with a ncar doubling of power dissipation over the period of record. This trend is due to both longer stonn lill.!timcs and greater stonn intensities. The research also found a close con·clation between net hurricane power and sca-surlttce temperature and suggested that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the 21·;' century. 25 Go\'cmmcnt of Antigua und Bnrhutlu. :wo I. Antigua and Barbuda ·s Initial Communh:utinn on Climulc: Chungc. pp. 35. Available from hun:i/unli:c.intl nation:.1l rcpurts/non-:mncx i natcomiitcms!2979.php ::!(l(iovcmlllcnt of Antisua and Barbuda. :wo 1. Antigua um.l Burhutla 's lniliul Cummunh:atiun on Climate Change. pp. 36 37. Available frum int/m1li01ml rcportsinun-mmcx i natcomlitcms/2979.phn 17Govcmmcnt of Jamaica. 2000. J;1maica's Initial Communication un Climate Change. p. 72. Avuilahlc fmm hllp:/iunfccL'.int/national i natcum/itcms/2979.ohp .:!HGovl!mmcnt of Jmnaica. :woo. J:mmicu's lniliul Communication on Climate p. 12. Available lhnn rcports/nunManncx i n:ucom/ilcmsi2979.php :!4 Commonwcalth of Dominicu. 2001. Cunummwcalth of Dominh:a's lniliul Communication on Climate Chunge. p. 51. Available from htto://unn.:cc.int/ natinn:1l 30Govcmment j natcmn/itcmsi:!979.php of St. Kitts Nevis. 200 I. St. Kitts Nevis Iniliul Communicntion hn Climate Changl!. p. 3R. Availabll! front httn:l/unfccc. inllnational rcpurts/nun-nnncx i natcom!itcms/2979.php AssesSMENT 31 4.2.4 Conseqnences of Trends in Tourism fin· the Caribbetm Se11 As well as being highly dependent on the services provided by the Caribbean Sea ecosystem. the tourism industry has an important inllucnce on its condition. Most tourism fitcilitics in the Caribbean, lor example, arc located within 800 metres of the high-water mark and can disturb sensitive ecological processes provided by habitats such as reefs and mangroves (sec Section 2; Crompton 1999). The true impact of tourism on the environment can only be addressed if one takes into account its usc of resources such as li·esh water, land and energy, as wdl as the wastes and pollution generated by the tourism industry. Tourism is a major consumer of water, with many resorts showing water consumption 5 or I 0 times higher than other residential areas (UNEP 1999; SEDU 2002). or equal importance is the widespread translorn1ation or coastal environments by the filling-in of wetlands as well as beach and coral-reef loss, lor hotel and marina construction. The growth of the cruise-ship sector prcst:nts challenges lor the sustuinability of Caribbcun tourism for two principal reasons. The first relates to the concentration of the industry in the hands of a few companies based outside the region. Three operators, CARNIVAL, Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL), und Royal Caribbean International accounted tor nearly 90'Yo of cruise capacity in 2004 (Wood 2004). Secondly, from the environmental perspective, one of the major implications or this growth is the potential lor increased pollution of the Caribbean Sea from ell1ucnt such as sewage and lubricants. It has been estimated that cruise ships contribute around 77% or all marine pollution worldwide. On a single voyage, a large cruise ship produces on average 210,000 gallons of sewage, I ,000,000 gallons of waste water, 125 gallons or toxic chemicals and hazardous waste, 8 tonncs of gurbagc. and 25,000 gallons of oil bilge water. While relatively little datu exist on cruise-ship pollution in the Caribbean Sea, particular cases of environmental damage have been recorded. They include the destruction of 300 acres of coral reel' by cruise-ship anchors around George Town, Cuyman Islands, nnd severe damage to 80')';, of a reef in a marine purk otr Cancun, Mexico, when a cruise ship ran aground . Caribbean national and regional authorities have only limited capacity to prevent such damage to the ecosystem, as the "!lag of convenience" regime enshrined in UNCLOS and other international agreements ertl.!ctively insulates cruise ships !rom tcnitorially based state nnd regional regulation. -49-