3 https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/sustainability/the-energy-future/climatechange.html More information on Carbon Budgets can be found in Appendix 3 Slide 4 : When will we pass the Carbon Budget? Based on current emissions pathways, illustrated here by the IPCC projections, the carbon budget to 2 degrees will be broken around 2040 and 3 degrees around 2054. This might change if emissions can decline rapidly over the next decade. More information on when the carbon budget is broken can be found here. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-much-carbon-budget-is-left-to-limitglobal-warming-to-1-5c Slide 5: The Carbon Bubble Continues to Inflate Despite the Paris Agreement and Governor Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England’s ‘Tragedy of the Horizon’ speech, the fossil fuel industry is not diverting from business as usual. There is an overhang in all fossil fuels, with coal reserves life exceeding the remaining “well-below 2°C” budget life by a factor of 7. This data is based on a 50% probability of avoiding 2 degrees, rather than a 66% probability. In addition, this data represents ‘proven’ reserves and does not include the far greater ‘resources’ which is under development by the fossil fuel majors. - Carney’s speech can be found here https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2015/breaking-the-tragedy-ofthe-horizon-climate-change-and-financial-stability) - Reserves, production and emissions data taken from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. - ‘Life’ of reserves is defined by total annual proven reserves divided by annual production rates. Carbon budget years remaining is calculated as remaining carbon budget divided by annual emissions. - Carbon budget data is for energy sector emissions only and was taken from the 2°C Scenario and Beyond 2 °C Scenario in the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2017. - Both scenarios provide a 2015-2100 carbon budget consistent with 50% chance of success. Carbon budget data for 2011-2014 was derived by adding annual energy sector emissions to the 2015 baseline.