Second National Communications The total global temperature increase from the 1850s through to 2005 is 0.76°C (1.36°F) and the rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. The ten warmest years in the instrumental record of global temperature (since around 1880) all occurred within the 12 year period 1997-2008.4 The IPCC forecast is a +2-3 degree temperature rise in the 21st century with a band of uncertainty that gives the window of possible extreme climate variability that can affect human health. The effects of climate change on health are both direct and indirect. The four weather parameters may give rise to extreme events of typhoons which may lead to flooding, storm surges, tsunamis, sea level rise, droughts and heat waves among others which will directly affect health due to disabilities or even loss of life and limb. Health assessment parameters are less complicated and while the occurrence is noted, it is less dominant. In the Philippines, where we are visited by more 20 typhoons annually5, this becomes Source: PAGASA Tropical cyclone graphs expected. As we are surrounded by bodies of water, this becomes the springboard for producing the low pressures that make typhoons. However, it is in the indirect effects of climate change, diseases that affect us have more complex parameters. This has the more dominant effects, making responses more difficult. PAGASA has come out with data stating that our minimum mean temperatures (0.89 degrees Celsius) have already increased over time (1956-2006) at three times that of maximum mean temperature (0.34 degrees Celsius). We are almost at 1.0 degree Celsius change already, which is disturbing. That is to say that we are having more frequent warmer early mornings and lesser cooler evenings. This spells potential changes in the expression of vector-borne, water-borne diseases and the attendant vector-host relationships. 4 5 http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/global-temperature.html http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/statfram.htm 5