Memorandum for the Petitioners | 33
By 2030, overall coal consumption would
5 . 18.10.
need to be reduced by at least two thirds (78%), 103 and by
2050 to almost zero coal used (97% reduction), compared to
2010 levels.104
5.18.11.
Similarly, oil and gas will need to decline
rapidly . In the scenario that does not rely on CDR technologies
(PI pathway),105 global oil consumption would need to decline
by 37% by 2030 from 2010 levels and gas by 13%, which
correspond to even larger reductions from current levels.106
r
5.18.12.
Moreover, “[pjathways limiting global
warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (such as PI )
would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land,
urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and
industrial systems.” These will be “ enabled by an increase of
adaptation and mitigation investments, policy instruments, the
acceleration of technological innovation and behavior
changes.» 107 Analyzing the IPCC SR 1.5 shows that successful
approaches will be those that try to solve mitigation, adaptation,
and development needs in an integrated and inclusive way that
protects, respects, and fulfills human rights.
5.18.13.
Finally, adaptation to climate change is
necessary and essential and requires assessing vulnerability and
possible impacts, building resilience, and planning for the
consequences.108
r
5.19. While the IPCC SR 1.5 shows that limiting the temperature
increase to 1.5°C instead of 2°C would reduce some of the risks and impacts
substantially, even at 1.5C of warming, the impacts will be significant and
dangerous. A further half degree would lead to some irreversible
damages . More specifically (see Figures 2 and 3 below):
Grubler, A., et al. (2018), A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5°C target and sustainable
development goals without negative emission technologies, available at
https:/Avww.nature.com/articles/s41560-018-0172-6 (last accessed on 12 September 2019). See also: IPCC
(2018 ) Summary for Policymakers , supra note 89, Figure SPM .3 b, p. 33.
103
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Figure SPM.3b, p. 33, median value for coal
reductions from 2020 to 2030.
104
Id., Figure SPM.3 b, p. 33.
105
Id., Figure SPM3 b.
106
The PI pathway is the Low Energy Demand Scenario, which assumes oil use to be almost halved (-46
%) and gas use to decline by about one third (-37%) between 2020 and 2030; See Grubler, A ., et al. (2018),
supra note 102.
107
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers, supra note 89, Sec. D5
108
Joint Summary of the Amicus Curiae Briefs, supra note 50, p. 10.
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