Memorandum for the Petitioners j 121 8.145. Takayabu et al. conducted ensemble simulations with very highresolution regional climate models and a surge model, and reproduced well the pressure depression, wind speed and surge level of Haiyan to model a worst-case scenario. Furthermore, they compared these results with the results of 16 (sixteen) ensemble simulations of a hypothetical natural event, one without human influences. What they found is that the simulated worstcase typhoon and the accompanying storm surge in the real condition became worse than those in the hypothetical natural climate without anthropogenic forcing.577 As Takayabu et al. state: Typhoon Haiyan (local name Yolanda), the most catastrophic tropical cyclone ever to land in the western North Pacific Ocean, struck the Philippines on 8 November 2013. The typhoon and especially the storm surge in the Leyte Gulf that accompanied it killed more than 6000 people in Tacloban (Schiermeier 2013). We conducted ensemble simulations with very high resolution regional climate models and a surge model, and reproduced well the pressure depression, wind speed and surge level of Typhoon Haiyan, as an example of a worst case scenario. Furthermore, we compared these results with the results of ensemble simulations of a hypothetical natural event, one without human influences, and found that the simulated worst case typhoon and the accompanying storm surge in the real condition became worse than those in the hypothetical natural climate without anthropogenic forcing. In 15 of 16 ensemble simulations, the typhoon became stronger than it did in the hypothetical natural cases, and the height of the storm surge around Tacloban increased by around 20%.578 r c 8 . 146 . As commended by Dr. Allen, the study shows “how human influence on climate has exacerbated the impact of that storm and made the highest winds experienced more intense .»579 8.147. In his testimony to the Honorable Commission, Dr. Allen also provided important insights on how to quantify harms on people and ecosystem due to extreme weather events or large-scale warming. DR. MYLES ALLEN: How do we actually quantify harm on people, on ecosystems [due] to a large-scale warming or extreme weather? So I'm going to give you a couple of examples here. Obviously the range of harms is very large and this Commission has a very broad brief to address all kinds of .. Exhibit “AAAAAAAAA” to “AAAAAAAAA- 10,” also marked as Exhibit “HHHHHH” to HHHHHH- 10,” Takayabu, I., et al Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge: a case study of Typhoon Haiyan, 2015 Environ . Res. Lett. 10 064011, p. 8, also available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/ 10. 1088/ 1748-9326/ 10/6/064011/pdf ( last accessed on 12 September 2019). 578 Ibid 579 Ibid 577