By applying the DIVA model, McLeod et al. (2010) analyzed the impacts of SLR on the region and
showed for some provinces of the Philippines under the RCP8.5 scenario a projected decrease of
coastal wetlands from 109,000 to 76,000 km² until 2100 (whole area). Looking at the coral triangle,
they further showed that the damage costs in the Philippines could be highest in comparison to the
other countries of the Coral Triangle (US $6.5 billion/year until 2100 without adaptation) – the
coastal wetlands of the Philippines are projected to amount to around 50% by 2100 (all for 100 cm
SLR). Blankespoor et al. (2012) also applied the model DIVA and found that a SLR of 100 cm will affect
100% of the coastal wetlands in the Philippines.
Saltwater intrusion could be a big burden for the health of people living near the coast and was
already mentioned in chapter 5.2.3.
To assess the overall vulnerability of coastal communities under the above-mentioned threats,
Orencio and Fujii (2013) invented the so-called coastal community vulnerability index (CCVI). They
applied the method to the municipality of Baler, Aurora, Philippines. The index consists of seven
factors namely geographical, economic and livelihood, food security, environmental, policy and
institutional, demographic, and capital good. They found the region most vulnerable with the highest
population density of resource-dependent individuals, but only connection to a small shoreline to
fulfill their demand. As a possible adaptation measure, they argued for an early warning system to
account for the potential risks from impending natural hazards. Other adaptation measures for
coastal areas to tackle the burden of changing climate can be found in Sales (2009).
A recent assessment on the vulnerability of coastal areas towards storm surges was done by Lapidez
et al. (2014). They simulated storm surges induced by Typhoon Haiyan-like storms using the tracks of
historical typhoons of the years 1948 to 2013. As a result of the study, the research group of the
Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH; disaster mitigation program of the
Department of Science and Technology, Government of the Philippines) provides a list of the most
vulnerable coastal regions (in terms of storm surges) of the Philippines.
There are publications available that account for the economic value of coastal and marine
resources. For example, Samonte-Tan et al. (2007) analyze that for the Bohol Marine Triangle in the
Philippines - without looking for impacts of climate change. The economic impacts of EWEs or slowonset changes could happen via losses in e.g. fishery, aquaculture or direct losses of goods and lives,
but could also be an impact on the tourism sector, which is of large importance for the region.
Roughly 4.2% of the country’s GDP in 2013 was a direct contribution (total contribution 11.3%) from
tourism (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2014). Perch-Nielsen (2010) analyzed the vulnerability of
beach tourism worldwide and found the Philippines among the most vulnerable countries. In Philips
and Jones (2006) more impacts on tourism could be found. To evaluate the vulnerability of primary
fishery commodities to changing climate in the Philippines, Jacinto et al (2015) used a sector-based
fisheries vulnerability assessment tool.
Many of the cited research can be found in the report of the IPCC (2014): Giri et al. (2011), Gedan
et al. (2011), De’ath et al. (2012), Villanoy et al. (2012), Chung et al. (2019) McLeod et al. (2010)
and Penaflor et al. (2009). Again we can in particular recommend these publications.
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