3 Executive Summary This report gives an overview of the existing literature on climate change impacts in the Philippines. The country is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world in terms of weather-related hazards. This applies to the past and – exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change – will continue to be applicable in the future. The extreme vulnerability of the archipelagic nation is demonstrated within the vast amount of literature that currently exists covering the exposure to, and the change in, occurrence rates of various types of weather-related threats (e.g. typhoons, floods, droughts…) and the sensitivity and the adaptation options of the different sectors in the country. We compiled the literature and distilled the main outcomes for the slow-onset changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise and the changes in weather extremes (i.e. heavy rain events, storms, heat waves…). The literature gives a consistent picture of the changes in temperature, extreme precipitation, and droughts. For these variables, increases are already detectable for the past and will persist in the future. For the past and future changes in storm frequency and intensity, there is a clear assumption on the global basis – lower frequency but increasing intensity – but the regional characteristics are not fully explored. The same is true for sea level rise, which is affecting the regional characteristics of storm patterns. For precipitation, the heterogeneous patterns in the country and varying approaches in literature means the results are unclear and precipitation remains the biggest challenge. We also compiled literature concerned with the impacts of the changing climate on the sectors of human livelihood (comprised of urban and rural livelihoods, health, gender and infrastructures), agriculture, and aquaculture, as well as coastal areas. For human livelihood, we identified multiple interrelations with changing climate in the literature. Taking into account the ever-growing population living in urban agglomerations, it is very important to highlight the impacts in these areas. The ADB (2012) assumes a growth in urban population at risk of multiple hazards in the Philippines of 350% between 2000 and 2050. Non-climatic problems, i.e. inadequate housing conditions and lack of economic and political participation will combine with and compound the intensifying threat of typhoons, floods, urban heat stress and SLR. For areas with high population density, another important issue is infectious diseases. The literature gives initial indications that the occurrence of e.g. dengue could be affected adversely by the changing climate. Adequate water infrastructure is a necessary precondition to prevent the spreading of such infectious diseases. Fresh water availability is at risk of saltwater intrusion due to sea level rise. Besides the hydrometeorological burdens, the coastal areas of the country will suffer, in particular, from deterioration of natural resources (e.g. decline of coral reefs and mangroves). In coastal areas, the stress induced by a changing climate adds to the already existing pressure of destructive human activities (e.g. pollution, unsustainable fishing practices, etc.). The biggest climate-induced stress factor in the agricultural sector will be heat, which will affect the growth of the plants and change the occurrence rates of droughts. 3