Submission in Support of Petitioners Case No. CHR-NI-2016-0001 flooding) have impacted food production, but it is not possible to say that these specific events were caused by climate change (although climate change will increase the likelihood of such events).92 Climate change is also adversely impacting the productivity of many fisheries as fish migrate to cooler and deeper waters in response to warming ocean temperatures.93 In future decades, climate change will adversely impact the production of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in both tropical and temperate regions.94 Even in the near term, the impacts on global food security could be devastating—for example, 10% of the projected impacts on food security under a 2C warming scenario showed yield losses of more than 25% for the period 2030-2049.95 Greater losses are expected after 2050.96” The food security risk will be greatest in lowlatitude countries, where there is high confidence that crop production will be “consistently and negatively” affected by climate change in a 2C warming scenario (and fishery production will also decline).97 In fact, the IPCC has found that negative yield impacts in the tropics are very likely regardless of adaptation or emissions scenarios.98 The severity of these impacts will of course increase under higher emissions scenarios and greater levels of warming. Agriculture in the Philippines could be “severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns.”99 Historically, crop yields in the Philippines have declined whenever temperatures have exceeded certain threshold values, which have been and will be increasingly exceeded as a result of climate change. 100 Observed decreases in rainfall during the dry seasons have also led to declines in crop yields over the past few decades.101 Going forward, the effect of rising temperatures and decreased rainfall on crop production could be devastating: one study found that 2 degrees of warming would reduce rice yield in the Philippines by 22%;102 another study found that climate change may 92 Id. Id. at 493. 94 Id. at 488. 95 Id. at 504. 96 Id. at 488, 504. 97 Id. 98 Id. at 505. 99 PAGASA (2011), supra note 10, at 50. 100 Id. 101 Warren (2009), supra note 17; IFRC (2016), supra note 84. 102 C.R. Escaño & L. V. Buendia, Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines: Simulation of Rice Yield Under Climate Change Scenarios, in IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE: CROP MODELING STUDIES (U.S EPA 1994). 93 Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School 19