EXHIBIT 5
Excerpt from The Greenhouse Effect report, 1988
Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij, The Greenhouse Effect 29, 57 (1988), available at http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/.
climate science and to thwart regulation at the sub-national, national,
and international levels.
In 1991, Shell released a 28-minute
film entitled Climate of Concern. The
film acknowledged the consensus
surrounding climate change, the role
of fossil fuels in driving the warming, and the scale and scope of the
potential devastation.46 It also noted
that the rate of temperature change
is greater than anything seen since
the end of the last ice age, and that
the climate might “change too fast,
perhaps, for life to adapt without
severe dislocation.”47 The film discussed the scale and scope of risks,
including changes to weather patterns and “the increasing frequency
of abnormal weather;”48 saltwater
intrusion; sea level rise; increasingly destructive storm surges, noting
“warmer seas could make such destructive surges more frequent and
even more ferocious;” pollution of
groundwater; impacts on agriculture; and the displacement of people
living on low-lying islands. It warned
of “greenhouse refugees” displaced
by shifting climates,49 noting “if the
weather machine were to be wound
up to such new levels of energy, no
country would remain unaffected.”50
A Crack in the Shell
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Climate of Concern demonstrates
that Shell was aware not only of the
risks of climate change, but also of
the robustness and growing specificity of the scientific case for climate
change. It noted that evidence for
warming had already been observed,
acknowledging observed warming in the Arctic as far back as the
1930s, and stating that “[r]egion by
region analysis of world temperature
records shows a small but significant warming trend over the century, with a marked increase in the
1980s.”51
It concluded that, while not all is
certain, many think waiting for
ironclad proof would be irresponsible and action now (in 1991) is
the only safe insurance.52 “What is
now considered abnormal weather
could become a new norm. We have
seen the consequences in our own
time.”53
Importantly, this film did not simply
address the risks posed by climate
change, but also examined solutions.
Notably, the film acknowledged
that, while technology, including
renewable energies and energy efficiency technologies, was a part
of the solution, combating global
warming would require more than
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technological fixes. That is to say, in
1991 Shell explicitly acknowledged
that coordinated, regulatory action
would need to be taken to solve the
climate crisis.
Despite its recognition of these realities, Shell’s messaging on climate
change – both internally and publicly – shows a marked shift in the
ensuing years, just as the public and
policy debates over climate action
were accelerating.
In 1994, Shell commissioned an update to The Greenhouse Effect, called
The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.
This report restated the consensus
of climate scientists and included
updates. In a significant departure
from previous analyses, however,
nearly half of the report was dedicated to “Areas of Controversy and
Alternative Scientific Views.”54 Even
as it acknowledged compelling new
climate science, the 1994 report
placed a heavy emphasis on discrediting and downplaying that science.
Three years after Shell declared in
Climate of Concern “waiting for
ironclad proof would be irresponsible and that action now is the only
safe insurance,” Shell seemed more
interested in demanding proof than
in taking action.
Center for International Environmental Law