51. Id. 52. Id. 53. Id. 54. See P. Langcake, Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij, The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect: A Review of the Scientific Aspects (1994), available at http://www.climatefiles. com/shell/1994-shell-enhanced-greenhouseeffect-review-scientific-aspects/ [hereinafter The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect]. About It? 6 (Mar. 1998), available at http://www. climatefiles.com/shell/1998-shell-report-think-anddo-about-climate-change/. 71. See Kathy Mulvey & Seth Shulman, Union of Concerned Scientists, The Climate Deception Dossiers: Internal Fossil Fuel Industry Memos Reveal Decades of Corporate Disinformation 25 (2015), https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/ attach/2015/07/The-Climate-Deception-Dossiers. pdf. 84. See Shell International, Sky: Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement (2018), available at https://www.shell.com/promos/meetingthe-goals-of-the-paris-agreement/_jcr_content. stream/1521983847468/ 5f624b 9260ef 2625f319558cbb652f8b23 d331933439435d7a0 fc7003f346f94/shell-scenarios-sky.pdf. 85. See UN Climate Change (@UNFCCC), Twitter (Mar. 26, 2018, 1:27 PM), https://twitter.com/ UNFCCC/status/978307561396015107. 72. See id. at 10. 86. Shell International, supra note 84, at 35. 55. See id. at 7-8. 73. See id. at 27. 87. See id. at 58-65 (The Sky Scenario further requires 56. See id. at 8-9. 74. See European Science and Environment Forum 57. See id. at 9-11. 58. See id. at 12. 59. See id. at 12-13. 60. Id. at 13. 61. See Shell International Petroleum Company, Shell Management Brief, Climate Change (Feb. 1995), available at http://www.climatefiles.com/ipccunfccc/1995-internal-shell-climate-change/. 62. See id. 63. P. Langcake, Shell International, Is Climate Change Occurring Already? (1995), available at http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1995-shellinternal-report-is-climate-change-occurring-already/. 64. Id. at 12. 65. The Greenhouse Effect, supra note 35, at 1. 66. Shell International Petroleum Company, Shell and the Environment (1995), available at http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1995-report-shellenvironment/. 67. Id. at 11. 68. Id. 69. See Shell International, Shell Management Brief, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Apr. 1996), available at http://www.climatefiles. com/shell/1996-shell-management-briefintergovernmental-panel-climate-change/. 70. See Presentation from Royal Dutch Shell Group, Climate Change: What Does Shell Think and Do 1101 15th Street NW, #1100 Washington, DC 20005 E: info@ciel.org | P: 202.785.8700 www.ciel.org back matter (on file with University of California, San Francisco), available at https://www. industrydocumentslibrary.ucsf.edu/tobacco/ docs/#id=zhfn0206. 75. See C.J.F. Böttcher, SourceWatch, https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/ C.J.F._B%C3%B6ttcher (last visited Apr. 4, 2018). 76. See Mulvey & Shulman, supra note 71, at 13. 77. See id. at 14-15. 78. See id. 79. See Karl Mathiesen & Ed Pilkington, Royal Dutch Shell Cuts Ties with ALEC over Rightwing Group’s Climate Denial, The Guardian (Aug. 7, 2015, 1:59 PM), https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/ aug/07/royal-dutch-shell-alec-climate-change-denial. 80. See Wendy Koch, 3 Factors Could Slow Arctic Drilling Despite Shell Go-Ahead, National Geographic (Mar. 30, 2015), https://news.nationalgeographic. com/energy/2015/03/150331-arctic-oil-drillingshell-interior-permission/. 81. See Karolin Schaps, Royal Dutch Shell Pulls Plug on Arctic Exploration, Reuters (Sept. 28, 2015, 1:48 PM), https://www.reuters.com/article/usshell-alaska/royal-dutch-shell-pulls-plug-on-arcticexploration-idUSKCN0RS0EX20150928. 82. See discussion supra note 64 and accompanying text. See also David Hone, The Carbon Bubble Reality Check, Shell Climate Change (May 3, 2013), https://blogs.shell.com/2013/05/03/ bubble/; Shell Climate Disclosures: Déjà vu?, Carbon Tracker Initiative (May 20, 2016), http:// www.carbontracker.org/report/shell-agm-climateresolutions-disclosure-exxon-chevron-total/. 83. See Schaps, supra note 81. reforestation of an area the size of Brazil to meet the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C). See also Greg Muttitt, Shell Game: What Shell Gets Wrong in Its New Climate Report, Oil Change International (Mar. 28, 2018), http://priceofoil. org/2018/03/28/shell-game-oil-company-saysclimate-future-is-fossil-fuelled/ (“The ‘Sky’ scenario aims for a 2-in-3 probability of keeping warming below 2°C, but this is only achieved if new technology is invented to suck carbon out of the atmosphere, as well as a dramatic turnaround in technology for capturing and burying carbon emissions.”) 88. Paris Agreement, Dec. 12, 2015, T.I.A.S. No. 16-1104, available at http://unfccc.int/files/ essential_background/convention/application/pdf/ english_paris_agreement.pdf. 89. See Muttitt, supra note 87. 90. See Simon Evans, In-Depth: Is Shell’s New Climate Scenario as ‘Radical’ as It Says?, CarbonBrief (Mar. 29, 2018, 2:37 PM), https://www.carbonbrief.org/ in-depth-is-shells-new-climate-scenario-as-radicalas-it-says. 91. See Carbon Tracker Initiative, 2 Degrees of Separation: Transition Risk for Oil and Gas in a Low Carbon World, Table 1 (2017), available at http://2degreeseparation.com/reports/2D-ofseparation_PRI-CTI_Summary-report.pdf. 92. See Shell International, Shell Global Energy Supply Model – Oil and Gas: A View to 2100 7 (2017), available at https://www.shell.com/energyand-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shellscenarios-energy-models/global-supply-model/_jcr_ content/par/textimage.stream/1500439104411/50 223ace900ca2d9a09c856832acf4186a 6f1d3c19c5 bd1ec727898ba61f0baf/shell-global-supply-model. pdf. 93. See id. A Crack in the Shell is the latest analysis in CIEL’s ongoing Smoke & Fumes investigation into what the oil industry knew about climate change, when they knew it, and what they did about it. This analysis was co-authored by Steven Feit and Carroll Muffett, edited by Amanda Kistler, and designed by Marie Mekosh. This report, and the extensive body of research that underlies it, were made possible with generous support from the Wallace Global Fund and Heinrich Boell Foundation. Errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of CIEL. A Crack in the Shell by The Center for International Environmental Law is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. April 2018. Cover photo: siam.pukkato / Shutterstock.com