far on the potential impact of a doubling of carbon dioxide on climate indicate that an increase in the global average temperature of 3 ± 1.5ºC is most likely … with greater warming occurring at the … polar regions.”62 The forecast also noted that projections calculating smaller temperature increases “are not held in high regard by the scientific community.”63 This understanding was also communicated in a 1980 report from Imperial Oil, Exxon’s Canadian subsidiary, entitled “Review of Environmental Protection Activities for 1978-1979.” The report acknowledges “[t]here is no doubt that increases in fossil fuel usage and decreases in forest cover are aggravating the potential problem of increased CO2 in the atmosphere.”64 By 1981, Exxon had internally acknowledged the risks of climate change and the role fossil fuel combustion played in increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. A position memo from Henry Shaw in May 1981 includes as Exxon’s current position on the CO2 Greenhouse effect that a 3 degree increase in average temperatures will result in a 10 degree increase at the poles, “[m]ajor shifts in rainfall/agriculture,” and that “[p]olar ice may melt.”65 By 1982, any lingering doubts were put to rest by a memo from Roger Cohen, then Director of Exxon’s Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Laboratory. In this memo, Cohen noted that “a clear scientific consensus had emerged regarding the expected climatic effects of increased atmospheric CO2.”66 This consensus determined that doubling atmospheric CO2 would result in a global temperature increase of three degrees Celsius, plus or minus 1.5 degrees Celsius.67 In this memo, Cohen also acknowledged the work of a scientist who believed increased water evaporation and cloud cover would stymie global temperature increases. Cohen’s conclusions, however, found that this analysis was consistent with predictions that atmospheric temperature increases would be non-uniformly distributed across the globe, with little warming at the equator and greatest “[in] summary, the results of our research are in accord with the scientific consensus on the effect on increased atmospheric CO2 on climate.” See Memorandum from Henry Shaw to T. K. Kett on “Exxon Research & Engineering Company Technological Forecast: CO2 Greenhouse Effect” 2 (Dec. 18, 1980) (on file with InsideClimate News), available at https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/Technological%20Forecast%20on%20CO2%20Greenho use%20Effect%201980.pdf. 63 Id. 64 See Brendan DeMelle & Kevin Grandia, “There is no doubt”: Exxon Knew CO2 Pollution Was A Global Threat By Late 1970s, DESMOG BLOG (Apr. 26, 2016, 9:19 AM), http://www.desmogblog.com/2016/04/26/there-no-doubtexxon-knew-co2-pollution-was-global-threat-late-1970s. 65 Memorandum from Henry Shaw, Exxon, to Dr. E. E. David, Jr., Exxon (May 15, 1981) (on file with InsideClimate News), available at https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/Exxon%20Position%20on%20CO2%20%281981%29.pd f. 66 Memorandum from Roger W. Cohen, Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Laboratory, Exxon, to A. M. Natkin, Office of Science and Technology, Exxon (Sept. 2, 1982) (on file with InsideClimate News), available at https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/%2522Consensus%2522%20on%20CO2%20Impacts%2 0%281982%29.pdf. 67 Id. 62 11