but also a drawdown of excess CO2 from the atmosphere -- so as to reduce atmospheric
CO2 to < 350ppm within a century -- and we suggest a range of answers to the critical
question, How much carbon4 must be drawn down from the atmosphere to restore earth’s
energy balance (and how much will that cost)?
There is not one single answer set to that compound question, in part because the
drawdown requirement is a function of both historic and future emissions and thus
depends on whether fossil fuel CO2 emissions continue at a high, constant, or declining
rate. Moreover, there is a considerable range of estimated costs for significant carbon
drawdown. In Exhibit B to this submission, at pages 10-16, my colleagues and I attempt
to specify that range.
I should note first, that, along with a different, albeit partly overlapping set of
colleagues -- including leading economists as well as leading climate scientists -- I had
previously determined that, had emissions declined, on an exponential basis, by 6 % yr-1,
commencing in 2013, then a total atmospheric drawdown, over several decades, of
approximately ~100 PgC should have sufficed to return atmospheric CO2 to <350ppm,
and thus press global temperature back to the range of the Holocene period. See
Dangerous Climate Change (ref. at nte 1, supra) at 10.5 We anticipated that a drawdown
of ~100 PgC could be achieved through reasonably natural means, including through
reforestation and improved agricultural practices, wherein such efforts also would secure
4
It is important to note that a ton of atmosphere carbon reflects 3.67 tons of carbon
dioxide, so that when my colleagues and I calculate, for example, that a total atmospheric
drawdown of ~100 PgC was required under a certain emissions reduction scenario, that
amount was equivalent to a total drawdown of ~367 PgCO2.
5
As we discussed, id. at 2-9, the temperature range and associated stable coastline of that
Holocene period was conducive and essential to the development of human civilization.
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