9
RWE). I have, in response to several plaintiff attorney’s requests, shared my
results on selected oil, gas, and coal companies that are defendants in these
cases with respect to emissions attributed to each company for certain
periods of years, such as 1988 to 2015. The dataset has been publicly
available since 2014 on a third-party website (www.carbonmajors.org), and
accessible at no cost to any academic, attorney, analyst, citizen, media outlet,
or oil & gas company who wishes to review and/or use the results.
Q18: Could you please briefly describe the key findings of “Potential emissions
of CO2 and methane from proved reserves of fossil fuels: An alternative
analysis,” Global Environmental Change, a paper you co-authored?
A18: The world’s largest oil, natural gas, and coal producers possess proven
recoverable fossil fuel reserves equal to 1.6 times the amount of carbon that
can be emitted to the atmosphere in this century — 275 GtC (billion tonnes
carbon) — if we are to restrict global warming to 2ºC. Most of these reserves
are owned by twenty-eight state-owned companies studied (210 GtC, or 76%
of the “remaining carbon budget,” RCB), whereas forty-two investor-owned
companies own relatively small reserves with potential emission totaling 44
GtC (15% of RCB). Thus the global imperative is to limit production of
reserves owned by state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, Gazprom,
and Petroleos de Venezuela, and to curtail the investment in additional
reserves by investor-owned companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, and BHP
Billiton — at least to the extent that they invest only in new carbon reserves
that will not be stranded in the event the world gets serious about policies to
assure we do not exceed the 2ºC threshold (or, quite possibly, less than 2ºC).
The companies have an obligation, and are increasingly subject to
resolutions by their shareholders, to fully and transparently assess their
reserves, capital investment options (including in renewable energy), and
production strategies in light of aggressive policies to limit global emissions
or disruptive technologies that displace carbon altogether.
Q19: How was your group able to arrive at these findings, or what methods were
used?
A19: We used the same methodology developed in Heede 2014 to estimate
potential emissions from the production of declared quantities of reserves of
oil, natural gas, and coal. We only quantified emissions from proved
reserves (not additional resources), and gathered reserves data from
company publications. We deducted non-energy uses such as road oil, petrochemicals, and lubricants when estimating potential emissions from reserves.
Q20: What are the primary differences between the historical research and the
future reserves research?
A20: Historical research quantifies operational and product-related emissions from
each entity’s annual extraction of fossil fuels based on company-reported
annual equity production, deducting for non-energy uses, and applying
standard emission factors to barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids
(NGL), volumes of natural gas, and tonnes of coal (by rank). Our reserves
research, on the other hand, while focused on attributable future emissions,
does so in the aggregate and does not model specific scenarios for each
company’s annual depletion rates of their reserves or reserve replacements.
This is the subject of ongoing work at Climate Accountability Institute.