SMOKE AND FUMES Over the ensuing years, major oil companies captured a significant proportion of those subsidies—either through developing their own patents185 or by buying up smaller solar energy companies.186 By the late 1980s, the majority of solar energy production in the United States was owned or controlled by the oil industry.187 Oil companies continued to own large portions of the solar energy industry for the ensuing “There is no doubt that increases in fossil fuel usage and decreases in forest cover are aggravating the potential problem of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Technology exists to remove CO2 from stack gases but removal of only 50% of the CO2 would double the cost of power generation.” — IMPERIAL OIL, 1980 decade and into the 2000s.188 It is extremely difficult to assess how the path of development, electrification, and carbonization might have changed had the petroleum industry properly disclosed the risks of climate change to consumers, regulators, and the broader public. The degree to which we would have demanded low-carbon energy and transportation had we been properly warned remains equally uncertain. It is not clear how much damage would have been avoided if the petroleum industry had deployed the technologies it knew could reduce CO2 emissions, or had developed or released the numerous patents it held for clean energy technologies. What is certain, however, is that we have strong and growing evidence that major oil companies had both the ability and the opportunity to take such steps beginning many decades ago. 21 theory that accumulating carbon dioxide could cause global warming and largescale climatic changes dates back to the nineteenth century. The fact that fossil fuel combustion releases tremendous amounts of carbon dioxide waste to the atmosphere has been undisputed for more than a century. In 1938, at least one scientist claimed to have measured a noticeable impact both on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures. Institute’s Smoke and Fumes Committee, was funding collective research into the accumulation of fossil carbon in the atmosphere. By no later than 1958, therefore, the oil industry collectively was on notice that the most important waste product from oil and other fossil fuels might be accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere, and it was funding research into this question as part of an industry-wide air pollution program. From no later than the 1940s, and continuing thereafter, the oil industry was actively engaged in pioneering research in an array of areas relevant to climate change and climate impacts. This included, inter alia, research into longterm changes in the earth’s temperature; the relationship between global temperatures and sea level rise; changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere; the nature, causes, and history of hurricanes; and techniques, technologies, and consequences of intentional weather modification. Industry records, oral histories from persons involved, and analyses of its activities by independent researchers strongly indicate that the core mission of the Smoke and Fumes Committee was to combine industry-funded research and public relations advocacy in order to increase public skepticism about air pollution science, with the express purpose of influencing legislation and regulation on pollution issues. Credible firsthand accounts suggest research was undertaken to prove a pre-determined result—in the case of Harold Johnstone, to discredit Arie Haagen-Smit’s theory of smog—and that unfavorable results were neither welcomed nor shared. Summary of Industry Knowledge of and Action on Climate Change In 1957, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess published research demonstrating that the world’s oceans would not rapidly absorb this CO2 and suggested carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were likely to increase significantly. Scientists working at Humble Oil (now ExxonMobil) were aware of this research at the time of its publication and published their own research in early 1958, in which they recognized the increase in atmospheric CO2, acknowledged the connection between fossil fuel combustion and that increase, acknowledged the link between atmospheric CO2 and potential temperature increases, and acknowledged Revelle’s criticisms of their own conclusions on ocean absorption of CO2. By no later than 1957, therefore, at least one major oil company was clearly on notice that the most important waste product from oil and other fossil fuels might be accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere with the potential to affect the climate on a planetary scale. The following basic conclusions can be drawn from the foregoing synthesis. The By 1958, the oil industry as a whole, through the American Petroleum In 1968, a Stanford Research Institute report commissioned by API, summarized the causes, nature, and consequences of global warming and climate change. The report warned the oil industry explicitly and in strong terms that the science underlying climate change was sound, that fossil fuel combustion provided the best explanation for climate change, that the impacts of climate change could be potentially significant on a global scale, and that the industry’s highest research priority should be identifying means and technologies for reducing emissions. The core of its analysis was further substantiated in a supplemental report prepared by the same authors at the request of API. The oil industry’s receipt of this report was acknowledged in other discussions of API-funded research, and the 1968 report was explicitly and extensively cited in communications between industry executives and the Department of the Interior (DOI), although the sections on