Statement of Glenn Stuart Hodes Climate Policy Expert transport of goods and services and backward and forward linkages to processing and export activities.3 Mounting evidence shows that output and worker productivity can also be linked to the direct of effects of climate change as well as indirect effects on supply chain inputs. For example, economic analyses by Vivid Economics4, The World Bank, and the Asian Development all show that heat waves and higher average temperatures would negatively impact GDP substantially through reduced worker productivity, especially in poor urban areas in Asia. 5 Heat stress and stroke from heat waves can also jeopardize the health and productivity of workers in various industries. Climate change is also as key development risk due the important role that the agricultural sector plays in the Philippines’ economy coupled with the inherent vulnerability of the sector and the ecosystems upon which it depends. Constituting 32 percent of the labour force and 11.3 percent of GDP, agricultural livelihoods and outputs are sensitive both to one-off climate related disasters as well as slow onset changes.6 Agricultural crops, particularly rice, are very sensitive to water and temperature stress; production is being adversely affected by more highly variable rainfall patterns and distribution that has been observed in recent years.7 Climate change is projected to have large negative impacts on maize production uniformly across the country.8 Dry spells or heavy rainfall occurring immediately after seedlings are planted or seeds are sown cause plants to die due to water or heat stress.9 Climate impacts can also directly reduce water availability for crops and contribute to increased incidence and severity of pests and diseases. In general, climate change has a material impact on food security in all four major aspects: production and availability levels, access to adequate levels of nutrition, utilization to reach a state of well-being, and stability. Initial research shows the Philippines is no exception. 10 The impacts of climate change on poor farmers are more profound than those on rich farmers due mainly to their more limited sources of income, their higher share of disposable income spent on food, as well as their relative dependency on staple crops that are more vulnerable to climate impacts compared to export crops. Since food is a major expenditure in poorer households, and their consumption highly price elastic, rises in the cost of staple crops such as 3 For example, for fisheries and aquaculture, an important agricultural sub-sector in the Philippines, climate change can directly affect the value chain and also indirectly reduce incomes and employment in related economic activity such as trade, processing, retail and the supply of goods and services to the industry. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. Addressing Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in National Adaptation Planning. April 2017. 4 Vivid Economics, The Macroeconomic Costs of Climate Change. Report for DEFRA. 2013. 5 Matthew E. Kahn. “Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities,” Asian Development Review, Vol 34 Issue 2, 2017. 6 Although this is projected to fall to 23.5 percent by 2050 as a result of a reduced importance of the sector to the economy, this will still be significant. Moreover, a large share of people dependent on the sector are likely to be among the most poor and socially marginalized groups. Thomas, Pradesha and Perez. “Agricultural Growth and Climate Resilience in the Philippines for IFPRI Policy Note. September 2015. 7 Simulation models indicate that yields of rice and other crops tend to decrease from 8 to 14% for every 1°C increase in temperature depending on location in the Philippines (Comiso, Espaldon, Lansigan, Blanche, & Sarigumba, 2013). This could result in a decline in overall rice productivity yields by 2.2 to 4.3 percent by 2050 depending on model scenarios. 8 Thomas, Pradesha and Perez, 2015. IFPRI Policy Note. 9 Peñalba et al. “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food Security and Livelihoods.” 2012. 10 Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. Climate Change and Food Security: Risks and Responses. Rome: FAO, 2016. And Reyes et. al, for Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. Impacts of Climate Change on Household Food Security in the Philippines. December 2014. 2