•
Temperature significantly increased in the past.22 This warming trend will persist into
the future, although with accelerating rates of increase. Increases in heat extremes
have been confirmed for the past23 and for the future.24
•
Sea level rise (SLR) will be stronger in Southeast Asia than in the rest of the world.25
This impact of climate change is related to the issue of land subsidence, which itself
strongly depends on natural and anthropogenic factors. Groundwater extraction, which
is anthropogenic, can further lead to saltwater intrusion into the freshwater storages.
•
Observed changes in precipitation are hard to quantify due to the heterogeneous
precipitation patterns in the country and the different methods used, data analyzed,
time horizons employed, and indicators considered by the various publications.
However, even contradictory statements given by various literatures26 can be seen as
relevant and correct under their specific assumptions. Projections of precipitation are
also challenging, which is reflected in differences in the climate models. Total
precipitation is expected to slightly increase. The IPCC stated that there is medium
confidence of a moderate increase in rainfall in Southeast Asia. 27
22
F.T. Tangang & L. Juneng & S. Ahmad, Trend and Interannual Variability of Temperature in Malaysia:
1961-2002, 89(3-4) THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 127 (2007); Cruz, R. V., David, C. P.,
David, L., Espaldon, M. V., Lansigan, F., Lorenzo, F. M., … Uy, N. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 469–506). Cambridge, UK; T.A. Cinco & R.G. de Guzman &
F.D. Hilario & D.M. Wilson, Long-term Trends and Extremes in Observed Daily Precipitation and Near Surface
Air Temperature in the Philippines for the Period 1951-2010, 145-146 ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 12
(2014); S. Chooprateep & N. McNeil, Surface Air Temperature Changes from 1909 to 2008 in Southeast Asia
Assessed by Factor Analysis, 2015 THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY.
23
M.J. Manton & P.M. Della-Marta… & … D. Yee, Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall and Temperature in
Southeast Asia and the South Paciic: 1961 – 1998, 21 INT. J. CLIMATOL. 269 (2001).
24
J. Sillmann & V.V. Kharin & F.W. Zwiers & X. Zhang & D. Bronaugh, Climate Extreme Indices in the
CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble: Part 2: Future Climate Projections, 2013 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL
RESEARCH 1.
25
M. Perette & F. Landerer & R. Riva & K. Frieler & M. Meinshausen, A Scaling Approach to Project Regional
Sea Level Rise and its Uncertainties, 4 EARTH SYST. DYNAM. 11 (2013).
26
Cruz, R. V., David, C. P., David, L., Espaldon, M. V., Lansigan, F., Lorenzo, F. M., … Uy, N. (2007). Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 469–506). Cambridge, UK; Lyon,
B., & Camargo, S. J. (2009). The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity
in the Philippines. Climate Dynamics, 32(1), 125–141; Endo, N., Matsumoto, J., & Lwin, T. (2009). Trends in
Precipitation Extremes over Southeast Asia. SOLA; Yao, C., Qian, W., Yang, S., & Lin, Z. (2009). Regional
features of precipitation over Asia and summer extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia and their associations
with atmospheric–oceanic conditions. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 106(1-2), 57–73.
doi:10.1007/s00703-009-0052-5; Endo, N., & Matsumoto, J. (2010). Trends in Precipitation Extremes over
Southeast Asia. In Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events; Caesar, J.,
Alexander, L. V., Trewin, B., Tse-ring, K., Sorany, L., Vuniyayawa, V., … Sirabaha, S. (2011). Changes in
temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo-Pacific region from 1971 to 2005. International Journal of
Climatology, 31(6), 791–801; Cruz, F. T., Narisma, G. T., Villafuerte, M. Q., Cheng Chua, K. U., & Olaguera,
L. M. (2012). A climatological analysis of the southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines. Atmospheric
Research, 122, 609–616; Villafuerte, M. Q., Matsumoto, J., Akasaka, I., Takahashi, H. G., Kubota, H., & Cinco,
T. A. (2014). Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines. Atmospheric Research,
137, 1–13.
27
IPCC. (2014b). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. (V. R. Barros, C. B. Field, D. J. Dokken, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, T. E. Bilir, … L. L. White,
Eds.) (p. 696). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.