There are several events whose attribution has not been addressed but that received an
enormous amount of media attention, one example being Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda. The
ocean heat content (OHC) and sea level in the region had increased a great deal since 1993 and
especially since 1998. Consequently, as the typhoon approached the Philippines, it was riding on
very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with very deep support through the high OHC, and the
strong winds and ocean mixing did not cause as much cooling as would normally be
experienced, probably helping the storm to maintain its tremendous strength. Moreover, the
storm surge was without a doubt exacerbated considerably by the sea levels, which were some 30
cm above 1993 values. Although natural variability played a major role, there was also a global
component through increased OHC from the Earth’s energy imbalance. Observations of the 2010
Russian heat wave and the recent California drought, among others, are also consistent with the
view that it is the combination of natural variability (weather, El Niño, etc.) and climate change
when they go in the same direction that causes record-breaking extreme weather. 177
The changes in extremes have huge environmental, economic, and social costs. However,
there is no clean separation as to how much should be ascribed to human influences. In one
sense, the extreme event would not have happened without global warming, because otherwise
the impacts of the event would have been well within previous experience. If this is accepted,
then the whole cost of an extreme event might be so assigned. 178
IV.
Attribution of Climate Change Impacts to the Carbon Majors (ClientEarth,
Plan B)
The Commission has before it detailed evidence of the previous activities of the Carbon
Majors, in the form of the thorough expert evidence of Richard Heede of the Carbon
Accountability Institute. This work is the only example of research linking anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions since 1850 to the operations and products of private actors.
The key finding of the research is that GHG emissions totaling 914.3 Gt of CO 2
equivalent (CO2e) produced between 1854 and 2010 (equivalent to 63% of estimated global
industrial CO2 and methane emissions between 1751 and 2010) can be traced to the operations
and products of the 90 Carbon Major groups of companies included in the analysis. 179 Of the 90
Carbon Majors included in the original study, 51 of those privately-owned groups of companies
have been included in the scope of the Petition. Based on Heede’s research, these 51 companies
contributed around one fifth of all global greenhouse gas emissions since 1854.
The operations and products of the Carbon Majors named in the Petition continue to be
significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. 180 For example, Chevron disclosed
177
Id. at p. 4.
Id.
179
Richard Heede, Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement
producers, 1854-2010, 122 CLIMATIC CHANGE 229 (2013) (in Annex D3 to the Petition); see also Annex D to the
Greenpeace Petition, Updated Details of Carbon Majors Publications. A 2017 update to this research demonstrated
that over half of global industrial emissions since 1988 can be traced to just 25 corporate or state producers. See
CDO, THE CARBON MAJORS DATABASE (2017), https://www.cdp.net/en/reports/downloads/2327.
180
Based on information disclosed both voluntarily to organizations such as CDP and under mandatory reporting
laws in various jurisdictions, for example, see Chevron‘s CDP 2015 Response, https://www.chevron.com//media/chevron/corporate-responsibility/documents/CDP-2015.pdf.
178
38
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