Figure 15 shows the expected results in adopting some of the policy options at current values of rainfall.
For instance, increasing farm to market road expenditure by 20 percent might likely lead to a 0.05 percent
reduction in vulnerability. On the other hand, subsidizing 30 percent of fertilizer cost might likely lead to
about 1.25 percentage point reduction in vulnerability. Similarly, investing in human capital also reduces
vulnerability. Enabling farming households’ heads finish at least high school level might reduce the actual
vulnerability on the average. Furthermore, providing enhanced agricultural facilities or infrastructure can
lead to reduced vulnerability. Having a thresher has the highest impact on vulnerability reduction followed
by irrigation pump, dryer and having agricultural organization.
Figure 15. Providing more agricultural infrastructure and enhancing educationat current value of
rainfall, CBMS 2007-2010
Agri Assets
Education of the head
5.60%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
Vulnerability
Vulnerability
5.40%
5.20%
5.00%
4.80%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
4.60%
1.00%
4.40%
0.00%
Actual
Agri org
Dryer
Irrigation
pump
Thresher
Actual
No
grade
Elem
level
Elem HS level HS Grad Coll
grad
level
Coll
grad
Source of basic: Pooled CBMS 2007-2010 Census
6. Conclusions and recommendations
Although having different datasets at different points in time, the study reveals that change in climate
variables likely transmit its effects on the households through farming income in the form of food insecurity.
The effects have been shown to be statistically significant to effect change in farming income together with
other factors that are available such as government expenditure on agriculture, farm inputs, and
infrastructure. Farming income then tends to significantly affect vulnerability to food insecurity given other
idiosyncratic factors of the households such as education, demography, access to infrastructure and housing.
Hence, images of food insecurity can be depicted using the structural models established in this study.
Rainfall levels and stability and extreme temperatures affect crop farming consistently across models.
Extreme increase in level of rainfall decreases income from crop farming and gardening and consequently
increases vulnerability to food insecurity. Higher temperatures, albeit having opposite effects with respect
to minimum and maximum, tend to eventually decrease farming income and will likely effect increse in
vulnerability to food insecurity. This means that temperature must not be too cold (too low minimum
temperature) and must not be too hot (too high maximum temperature). This explains that at the national
level, changes in temperature lead to increased vulnerability to food insecurity which is also true in some
of the provinces. However, changes in level of rainfall will increase vulnerability in some parts of the
country.
CBMS-FAO | 48
Select target paragraph3
Connect to a paragraph
Connect to an entity
Disable highlights
Add to table of contents