ππΌπ¦
πππΌπ¦ = 100 (
β 1)
ππΌ1979β2006
3. Change in current year rainfall volatility relative to long run volatility in 1979-2006:
ππΆππ¦ = 100 (
πΆπ1|π¦
πΆπ28|1979β2006
β 1)
4. Change in maximum/minimum temperature in current year compared to long run average in
1979-2006:
2006
1
ππππ΄ππ¦ = max(πππ΄π) β
β max(πππ΄π)
π¦
π
28
π=1979
2006
1
ππππΌππ¦ = min(πππΌπ) β
β min(πππΌπ)
π¦
π
28
π=1979
Where max(πππ΄π) and min(πππ΄π) are maximum and minimum temperature at year i,
π
π
respectively.
Estimation
The final model specification varies according to the underlying trend in each dataset. Hence, the choice
of level or form of measurement is essential in coming up with the final model. Take, for example, the
climatology measures, including each of the climate variables without transformation is taken generally as
assuming that the relationship between income from agriculture and say change in rainfall is linear. In this
subsection, the objective is to establish the fact that the relationship is non-linear and interpretation of the
trend will be deferred until the specific datasets since there are other explanatory variables.
CBMS-FAO | 26
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