Amicus Curiae Brief presented by ClientEarth 21 November 2016  risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods resulting from storm surges, sea level rise and coastal flooding; inland flooding in some urban regions; and periods of extreme heat;  systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services;  risk of food and water insecurity and loss of rural livelihoods and income, particularly for poorer populations;  risk of loss of ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem goods, functions and services.61 77. Scientific evidence of the physical impacts in the Philippines to date and those that are predicted to occur in the coming decades should be considered in detail by the Commission. Nevertheless, we submit that the Commission may accept, in the face of overwhelming evidence as reported by the IPCC, that climate change is having and will continue to have significant impacts on the human rights of the people of the Philippines.62 6.2 Attribution of greenhouse gas emissions 61 See note 33 at p 65. We also note that the emerging science of "extreme weather event attribution" now enables scientists to determine the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of a particular weather event or a class of weather events. The scientific definition of event attribution is "the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence". These kinds of studies could in the future allow scientists to categorically conclude that a tropical storm in the Philippines, for example, would not have occurred but for the influence of human greenhouse gas emissions. See Stott et al, 'Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events', WIREs Climate Change, 2015. Also see https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-scientific-challenge-of-extreme-weather-attribution , and https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852/attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-the-context-of-climate-change 62 39

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