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3. Recommendations Particular to the Judiciary
a. Design and Implement Rules of Evidence for Attributing
Climate Change Impacts and Assessing Damages
There is a distinction between the science of event attribution and the establishment
of legal causation. Event attribution is not a direct reconstruction of how each
carbon contribution of an individual caused damage through climate change.
Instead, it seeks to establish: (a) whether the likelihood or strength of a
natural event has changed in the observational record,and (b) whether this change is
consistent with the anthropogenic influence as found in one or more climate models.
Assessment of the “Fraction of Attributable Risk”613 is often misunderstood and
misapplied in the context of legal causation where a clear unbroken chain of
events leading up to the injury or damage is necessary to establish liability.
In many jurisdictions, courts evaluate evidence linking actors to climate-related
losses using the stringent standards of legal causation. This disregards the work
of climate and attribution science, and causes more climate injustice.
The Commission therefore recommends that the judiciary take notice of
developments in the science of attribution when considering legal causality in
assessing climate change impacts and damages.
b. Take Judicial Notice of the Anthropogenic Nature of
Climate Change
The scientific community has long reached a consensus that climate change is
induced by human activity. In the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC
stated that it is unequivocal that the climate change currently being experienced
is anthropogenic in origin. As discussed in earlier chapters, it has been concluded
that human activities have caused significant changes in the key global climate
change indicators. In light of this uncontroverted evidence, courts should take
judicial notice that climate change is unequivocally anthropogenic, as supported
by incontrovertible data.
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Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, & Theodore G. Shepherd, Attribution of Climate Extreme Events,
5 Nat. Clim. Chang. 725 (2015), available at https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657.
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