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While Shell claims that its Sky Scenario would hold warming to “around
1.75 degrees”, Shell’s approach is not in our view consistent with the Paris
climate target. Parties agreed in Paris to keep warming well below 2 degrees
Celsius and to limit the increase to no more than 1.5 degrees if possible. This
is a critical difference. As the experience of the Philippines attests all too
clearly, even at 1 degree of warming the world is witnessing severe impacts
on communities, ecosystems and human rights. This is why many scientists
and advocates argue that even 1.5℃ of warming is too much, and urgent
efforts are needed to keep warming as low as possible. An analysis of the
scenario prepared for Shell by MIT estimates that there would be a mere 13%
chance of staying below 1.5℃ under the Sky Scenario. Even if one accepted
that the higher 1.75℃ limit proposed by Shell was acceptable, MIT says
there's only a 50% chance of keeping to that target. To get a two-thirds
chance of success under Sky, one must accept a temperature target of
approximately 1.9 degrees Celsius. This, in our view, cannot be considered
“well below” 2 degrees.
The Sky Scenario also implies wrongly and dangerously that the global
community can continue its reliance on fossil fuels for several decades while
somehow still meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. In order to achieve
this, the Sky Scenario must assume the deployment of unproven and risky
carbon capture and storage technologies at a massive scale, with potential
severe impacts on communities and ecosystems. Even with these
technologies, moreover, Shell assumes the world will overshoot the Paris
target, then use additional CCS, together with Bioenegy with CCS (BECCS)
to bring temperatures back down.
Finally, and fundamentally, in the absence of clear plans to implement it, the
Sky Scenario is meaningless unless Shell has concrete plans to pursue it.
Legal disclaimers in the document make clear that it does not.
Q30: In your professional opinion, do the Shell internal and public
communications indicate that the company misled the public, the
consumers, and its shareholders in ways that may have broken the law or
be inconsistent with the company’s responsibilities to respect human
rights?
A30: In my opinion, and on the present evidence, I believe there is a significant
dichotomy between the public image Shell seeks to convey on climate
change, and the actual content of its operations.
Q31: Do you know if Shell and other fossil fuel companies did anything to
advance or derail efforts on renewable energy transition and other
solutions to address climate change?
A31: I have discussed relevant examples of this in Answer 21 above.
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