even on a very local scale. Edillo and Madarieta (2012) analyzed recent trends in dengue incidence in
Cebu province. They mostly related the dengue problem, like Bravo et al. (2014), to growing
urbanization and population, inadequate public health infrastructure, poor solid waste management
and lack of an effective mosquito surveillance system. However, they stated a relationship between
the rainy season and the dengue cases, which was also exposed by Su (2008). She analyzed the
correlation between Dengue and the temperature and precipitation patterns in Manila and found the
latter to be of relevance for the occurrence rates of the illness. Dulay et al. (2013) made a statistical
analysis of dengue cases in Iligan City, Lanao del Norte, Philippines on monthly basis and found
temperature and humidity to be more important than rainfall. For the region of Central Visayas,
Picardal and Elnar (2012) also studied the relationship between temperature and rainfall on dengue
incidence, but found no significant correlation. As rainfall showed significant correlations in other
studies, this shows that the local conditions, both climatological and socio-economic, are of great
importance for the surveyed relationship. In the case of the region of Central Visayas it is very
interesting that, despite scarce precipitation occurring in that region over the study period, many
cases of dengue fever were still observed. Buczak et al. (2014) built a prediction model for dengue in
Philippines by applying socio-economic and meteorological variables. Opena & Teves (2011) and
Pasay et al. (2013) analyzing Iligan City and Ozamiz City, respectively, but the publications were found
to be not fully reliable statistically.
Besides studies directly related to the Philippines, there are is wide range of literature dealing with
other regions. Here, we refer to the following as they could be of relevance for the Philippines. Tseng
et al. (2009) analyzed the impact of climate change on the prevalence of dengue fever for the region
of Taiwan and found by doing an empirical estimation that climate conditions have an increasingly
significant impact on the probability of people being infected by dengue fever. They assumed a
climate change induced temperature increase will therefore exacerbate the risk of that disease. Hii et
al. (2009) used a higher temporal resolution by using weekly data in Singapore and found mean
temperature and precipitation had an impact on dengue incidence rate with a time lag of several
weeks. They also assume a potential increase caused by the ongoing change in climate. Khasnis and
Nettleman (2005) executed a general survey of infectious diseases and global warming and made
some general statements that could here be used as a quintessence. They clearly state that global
warming will change the epidemiology of infectious diseases, but also other effects play an important
role, i.e. human migration, resistance of population, scarce potable water, insufficient health
infrastructure, and others.
Further, many publications argue that the field of influence of environmental factors on dengue is
under-studied (e.g. Picardal and Elnar, 2012; Bravo et al., 2014).
On a spatially broader view, the ADB (2011) wrote a report on the relationship between health and
changing climate. On a very local level, Palacio & Palacio (2014) analyzed the authority’s perception
of climate change to assess the health system preparedness in the province of Albay. They conducted
a survey on health system staff and found that the respondents perceived climate change to be a
relevant threat for health. The publication further suggests certain policy measures to deal with the
issue.
Another subject for health is saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers, which provide on a global
basis, drinking water to more than a billion people living in coastal areas (World Bank, 2013a). This is
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