business venture, or for any other reason, these patents demonstrate that at least one company (now
ExxonMobil) was not just aware of but developing technology for vehicles with fuel cells.
It is extremely difficult to assess how the path of development, electrification, and carbonization might
have changed had the petroleum industry been forthright about the risks of climate change. It is not clear
the degree to which we would have demanded low-carbon energy and transportation had we been
properly warned. It is not clear how much damage would have been avoided if the petroleum industry
continued developing carbon capture and fuel cell technology, or if they released the patents and allowed
others to attempt to do the same. It is clear, though, that in addition to promoting the combustion of fossil
fuels and the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere, the petroleum industry – or at least several
members of it – were keenly aware of low-carbon alternatives.
Summary of Industry Knowledge of and Action on Climate Change
The following essential facts can be drawn from the foregoing synthesis. The theory that accumulating
carbon dioxide could cause global warming and large-scale climatic changes dates back to the nineteenth
century. The fact that fossil fuel combustion releases tremendous amounts of carbon dioxide waste to the
atmosphere has been undisputed for more than a century. In 1938, at least one scientist claimed to have
measured a noticeable impact both on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures.
From no later than the 1940s, and continuing thereafter, the oil industry was actively engaged in
pioneering research in an array of areas relevant to climate change and climate impacts. This included,
inter alia, research into long-term changes in the earth’s temperature; the relationship between global
temperatures and sea level rise; changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere; the nature, causes
and history of hurricanes; and techniques, technologies, and consequences of intentional weather
modification.
In 1957, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess published research demonstrating that the world’s oceans would
not rapidly absorb this CO2, and suggested carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were likely to increase
significantly. Scientists working at Humble Oil (now ExxonMobil) were aware of this research at the time
of its publication and published their own research in early 1958, in which they recognized the increase in
atmospheric CO2, acknowledged the connection between fossil fuel combustion and that increase,
acknowledged the link between atmospheric CO2 and potential temperature increases, and acknowledged
Revelle’s criticisms of their own conclusions on ocean absorption of CO2. By no later than 1957,
therefore, at least one major oil company was clearly on notice that the most important waste product
from oil and other fossil fuels might be accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere with the potential to affect
the climate on a planetary scale.
By 1958, the oil industry as a whole, through the American Petroleum Institute’s Smoke and Fumes
Committee, was funding collective research into the accumulation of fossil carbon in the atmosphere. By
no later than 1958, therefore, the oil industry collectively was on notice that the most important waste
product from oil and other fossil fuels might be accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere, and was funding
research into this question as part of an industry-wide air pollution program.
Industry records, oral histories from persons involved, and analyses of its activities by independent
researchers strongly indicate that the core mission of the Smoke and Fumes Committee was to combine
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